Canada s housing market;Time for a bigger needle; The latest attempt toprick a bubble;

　　加拿大的住宅市場;該出手時就出手;戳破泡沫的最新舉措;

　　Canada s reputation for financial regulation isstarry. Its banks got through the crisis unscathed.According to Moody s, a ratings agency, Royal Bankof Canada sits alongside HSBC and JPMorgan Chasein the top tier of global banks. And Canadianpolicymakers are old hands at pullingmacroprudential levers of the sort now in vogue among rich-world central banks.

　　加拿大的金融監管一向廣受贊譽。它的銀行業在這場危機中做到了獨善其身。根據評級機構穆迪的報告，加拿大皇家銀行與匯豐銀行以及摩根大通同列，躋身全球銀行界的第一梯隊。同時，加拿大的政策制定者也是運用宏觀審慎政策的老手，這一政策如今也常被其他富國的央行使用。

　　But questions still nag. Some say that Canada s banks are flattered by a huge indemnityoffered by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp , a public institution that insuresmortgages with a loan-to-value ratio of more than 80%. CHMC s book grew to 567 billionCanadian Dollar in 2011, up from 345 billion Canadian Dollar four yearsearlier. And Canada s housing market looks very frothy on some measures: The Economist sanalysis of price-to-rent ratios suggests that Canadian properties were about 75% abovetheir long-run fair value in the first quarter of 2023 . Although less than 0.5% ofCHMC s mortgages are in arrears, such exuberance is a worry. The central bank recentlylabelled housing as the most important domestic risk to financial stability in Canada.

　　但是，仍有問題纏身。部分人士認為，加拿大的銀行被加拿大抵押和住房公司提供的巨額補償金美化了，CMHC是一家為貸款估值比率超過80%的抵押貸款提供保險的公共機構。在2011 年，CHMC的抵押貸款額從四年前的3450億增長到了5670億加元。并且，從一些指標來看，加拿大的房地產充斥著泡沫：《經濟學人》以房價租金比所做的分析顯示，在2023年第一季度，加拿大的物業價格高出它們的長期公允價值75%。縱然僅有低于0.5%的CHMC抵押貸款存在拖欠的情況，但這樣的繁榮仍讓人憂慮。最近，央行也冠以樓市 危及加拿大金融穩定性的最大國內隱患。

　　Repeated efforts by policymakers to take the heat out of housing have not had a noticeableeffect. So on June 21st Jim Flaherty, the finance minister, had another go, his fourth in fouryears. Some of the new measures were cosmetic. Buyers of homes worth more than 1mDollar have been able to get mortgage-default insurance from CMHC with adownpayment of only 5%. In practice, it is hard to find buyers in this bracket who do nothave lots of equity in their homes. But after July 9th mortgages for homes of this value willnot be eligible for CMHC coverage.

　　政策制定者們給樓市降溫的不斷嘗試并無明顯成效。于是，在6月21日，加拿大財長吉姆費拉逖，在四年來第四次出臺了一些新舉措。新措施中的一些不過是表面功夫。價值過百萬美元住宅的買主能得到由CMHC擔保的債務違約保險以及首付僅付5%的優惠待遇。而事實上，很少有這類購房者在購房時不以大量自有資金支付價款的。不過，在6月9日之后，這類住宅將不再適用于CMHC的保險范圍。

　　Other measures have more teeth. The maximum amortisation period for a mortgage willnow be 25 years, down from 30. That should hurt demand: last year about 40% of newmortgages were for terms longer than that. Refinancing a home will be allowed only up to80% of its value, down from 85%. Homebuyers will have to demonstrate their housing costsare no more than 39% of their gross household income. On top of Mr Flaherty s measures,the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Canada s banking regulator, slappeda loan-to-value limit of 65% on borrowing against home equity.

　　其他那些則更為有力。抵押貸款最長還貸期限如今將從30年降低至25年。這勢必將減少需求：去年約有40%的新貸款的期限是超過25年的。允許的房屋再融資的上限從房屋價值的85%降至只有80%。購房者還須證明他們的住房支出不超過家庭總收入的39%。費拉逖的舉措中，緊隨其后的是，加拿大的銀行監管部門，聯邦金融機構監督辦公室，將貸款和自有資金間的貸款估值比率的限制猛降至65%。

　　Craig Alexander, the chief economist for TD Financial Group, estimates all this will be theequivalent of about a 1% rise in mortgage rates for most homebuyers. He believes thatwill produce a slow unwinding of the housing market. If he is right, and Mr Flaherty s variousinterventions avoid the collateral damage that would be caused by an actual interest-raterise, Canada s admirers will have another thing to swoon over.

　　多倫多道明銀行金融集團首席經濟學家，克雷格亞歷山大估計，所有這些措施對于購房者而言將等同于抵押貸款利率上升1%。他認為這將促使房產市場緩慢回歸。如果他的觀點正確，并且費拉逖的各種干預手段能夠避免可能引發實際利率上升的附帶傷害，那么如此一來，加拿大的崇拜者們又將有一個可以津津樂道的話題了。

　　Canada s housing market;Time for a bigger needle; The latest attempt toprick a bubble;

　　加拿大的住宅市場;該出手時就出手;戳破泡沫的最新舉措;

　　Canada s reputation for financial regulation isstarry. Its banks got through the crisis unscathed.According to Moody s, a ratings agency, Royal Bankof Canada sits alongside HSBC and JPMorgan Chasein the top tier of global banks. And Canadianpolicymakers are old hands at pullingmacroprudential levers of the sort now in vogue among rich-world central banks.

　　加拿大的金融監管一向廣受贊譽。它的銀行業在這場危機中做到了獨善其身。根據評級機構穆迪的報告，加拿大皇家銀行與匯豐銀行以及摩根大通同列，躋身全球銀行界的第一梯隊。同時，加拿大的政策制定者也是運用宏觀審慎政策的老手，這一政策如今也常被其他富國的央行使用。

　　But questions still nag. Some say that Canada s banks are flattered by a huge indemnityoffered by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp , a public institution that insuresmortgages with a loan-to-value ratio of more than 80%. CHMC s book grew to 567 billionCanadian Dollar in 2011, up from 345 billion Canadian Dollar four yearsearlier. And Canada s housing market looks very frothy on some measures: The Economist sanalysis of price-to-rent ratios suggests that Canadian properties were about 75% abovetheir long-run fair value in the first quarter of 2023 . Although less than 0.5% ofCHMC s mortgages are in arrears, such exuberance is a worry. The central bank recentlylabelled housing as the most important domestic risk to financial stability in Canada.

　　但是，仍有問題纏身。部分人士認為，加拿大的銀行被加拿大抵押和住房公司提供的巨額補償金美化了，CMHC是一家為貸款估值比率超過80%的抵押貸款提供保險的公共機構。在2011 年，CHMC的抵押貸款額從四年前的3450億增長到了5670億加元。并且，從一些指標來看，加拿大的房地產充斥著泡沫：《經濟學人》以房價租金比所做的分析顯示，在2023年第一季度，加拿大的物業價格高出它們的長期公允價值75%。縱然僅有低于0.5%的CHMC抵押貸款存在拖欠的情況，但這樣的繁榮仍讓人憂慮。最近，央行也冠以樓市 危及加拿大金融穩定性的最大國內隱患。

　　Repeated efforts by policymakers to take the heat out of housing have not had a noticeableeffect. So on June 21st Jim Flaherty, the finance minister, had another go, his fourth in fouryears. Some of the new measures were cosmetic. Buyers of homes worth more than 1mDollar have been able to get mortgage-default insurance from CMHC with adownpayment of only 5%. In practice, it is hard to find buyers in this bracket who do nothave lots of equity in their homes. But after July 9th mortgages for homes of this value willnot be eligible for CMHC coverage.

　　政策制定者們給樓市降溫的不斷嘗試并無明顯成效。于是，在6月21日，加拿大財長吉姆費拉逖，在四年來第四次出臺了一些新舉措。新措施中的一些不過是表面功夫。價值過百萬美元住宅的買主能得到由CMHC擔保的債務違約保險以及首付僅付5%的優惠待遇。而事實上，很少有這類購房者在購房時不以大量自有資金支付價款的。不過，在6月9日之后，這類住宅將不再適用于CMHC的保險范圍。

　　Other measures have more teeth. The maximum amortisation period for a mortgage willnow be 25 years, down from 30. That should hurt demand: last year about 40% of newmortgages were for terms longer than that. Refinancing a home will be allowed only up to80% of its value, down from 85%. Homebuyers will have to demonstrate their housing costsare no more than 39% of their gross household income. On top of Mr Flaherty s measures,the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Canada s banking regulator, slappeda loan-to-value limit of 65% on borrowing against home equity.

　　其他那些則更為有力。抵押貸款最長還貸期限如今將從30年降低至25年。這勢必將減少需求：去年約有40%的新貸款的期限是超過25年的。允許的房屋再融資的上限從房屋價值的85%降至只有80%。購房者還須證明他們的住房支出不超過家庭總收入的39%。費拉逖的舉措中，緊隨其后的是，加拿大的銀行監管部門，聯邦金融機構監督辦公室，將貸款和自有資金間的貸款估值比率的限制猛降至65%。

　　Craig Alexander, the chief economist for TD Financial Group, estimates all this will be theequivalent of about a 1% rise in mortgage rates for most homebuyers. He believes thatwill produce a slow unwinding of the housing market. If he is right, and Mr Flaherty s variousinterventions avoid the collateral damage that would be caused by an actual interest-raterise, Canada s admirers will have another thing to swoon over.

　　多倫多道明銀行金融集團首席經濟學家，克雷格亞歷山大估計，所有這些措施對于購房者而言將等同于抵押貸款利率上升1%。他認為這將促使房產市場緩慢回歸。如果他的觀點正確，并且費拉逖的各種干預手段能夠避免可能引發實際利率上升的附帶傷害，那么如此一來，加拿大的崇拜者們又將有一個可以津津樂道的話題了。