Egypt after the coup

　　政變之后的埃及

　　THE words civil war pepper many a conversation in Cairo in the wake of the militarycoup on July 3rd that ousted Muhammad Morsi, a Muslim Brother, after only a year in power.On July 8th the prospect of all-out strife loomed larger after the security forces in Cairo shotdead at least 50 people who had been demanding Mr Morsis reinstatement.

　　7月3日，埃及發(fā)生軍事政變。穆斯林兄弟會的穆罕默德?穆爾西執(zhí)政僅一年之久，便遭罷黜。自那以后，開羅的民眾議論紛紛，內(nèi)戰(zhàn)這個字眼頻頻出現(xiàn)。6月8日，開羅的安全部隊士兵至少開槍打死了50名要求恢復(fù)穆爾西職位的民眾。形勢愈加嚴(yán)峻，全面大戰(zhàn)在即。

　　Egyptian society remains bitterly divided between a core of Brotherhood backers, who feelcheated, and the millions of people, including secular-minded and liberal Egyptians andquite a lot of religious ones, who wanted Mr Morsi to go. Above all, Egyptians need to agreeon a plan to move the country back to democracy. On July 8th the judge appointed by thearmy as an interim president unveiled a brisk timetable for bringing in a new constitutionand for parliamentary and presidential elections. It is bound, at best, to be a bumpy ride.

　　埃及社會仍是嚴(yán)重分裂，一邊是穆兄會的核心支持者，心中是上當(dāng)受騙的感覺;另一邊是數(shù)百萬民眾，其中不乏世俗自由派埃及人以及大批宗教人士，他們要的是穆爾西下臺。最重要的是，埃及人需要確定一個統(tǒng)一方案，讓國家重返民主之路。7月8日，由軍方任命的臨時總統(tǒng)最高法院院長迅速公布了一份安排緊湊的時間表，確定了新憲法的頒布時間以及議會選舉、總統(tǒng)大選時日。即便天時地利人和，這條路也注定坎坷。

　　The opposition is still crowing over Mr Morsis demise. Voices calling for the vanquishing ofterrorists, as the fiercer foes of the Muslim Brothers like to call them, seem louder thanthose calling for restraint and compromise. On the other side, Mr Morsis diehard disciples,fearing for their survival, refuse to consider anything less than his reinstatement, which thegenerals now in charge are sure to dismiss out of hand. Since July 3rd Mr Morsis peoplehave continued to mass in districts of eastern Cairo, where their support is strongest, toprotest against the overthrow of their democratically elected president.

　　反對派至今還在為推翻穆爾西而沾沾自喜。要求消滅恐怖分子的人似乎比呼吁克制、折衷的人更多。而另一邊，穆爾西的鐵桿支持者為了他們的存亡大計，要求穆爾西復(fù)職。若不滿足這個最低條件，一切免談。但目前的軍方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人肯定會當(dāng)即拒絕。自7月3日起，穆爾西的支持者就一直在開羅東部地區(qū)集會，抗議軍方罷免他們民主選舉的總統(tǒng)。

　　The two sides also disagree over who was to blame for the shooting on July 8th outside theRepublican Guard Club, where Mr Morsi was said to be held. The actions of the securityforces seemed plainly disproportionate, at the least. The interim president, Adly Mansour,called for an inquiry without suggesting its terms, leaving the whiff of a would-be cover-up.The security forces have never hidden their hostility to the Brothers.

　　雙方存在分歧的還有一點(diǎn)：誰該為7月8日發(fā)生共和國衛(wèi)隊俱樂部外的槍擊案負(fù)責(zé)。據(jù)傳，穆爾西當(dāng)時就軟禁于此。無論如何，守衛(wèi)士兵的行為看上去顯然是過分了。臨時總統(tǒng)阿茲利?曼蘇爾下令調(diào)查此案，但他并沒表達(dá)自己的立場，似乎有種想把案子壓下去的意味。而安全部隊從未掩飾過他們對穆兄會的敵意。

　　In response the Brotherhoods leaders called for an uprising against the army and its head,General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who launched the coup. The public prosecutor then issuedarrest warrants for the organisations leaders, including its supreme guide, charging themwith incitement to violence. Several hundred Brothers, including Mr Morsi, are behind bars,raising the spectre of Egypts deep state, as the security establishment is known, makinga comeback.

　　作為回應(yīng)，穆兄會的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人號召民眾起義，反對軍方和發(fā)動政變的軍方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人阿卜杜勒?法塔赫?西薩將軍。埃及檢方隨即對該組織領(lǐng)導(dǎo)發(fā)出逮捕令，指控他們煽動暴亂。如今，包括穆爾西在內(nèi)的幾百名穆兄會成員鋃鐺入獄，恐懼的氛圍已在醞釀，有著暗深勢力集團(tuán)之名的國家安全部官員似乎要卷土重來。

　　Keen to bring back stability and to persuade people that he sincerely wants to cede poweras soon as possible, General Sisi moved fast to prod Mr Mansour into setting a rapid returnto democracy. Along with his speedy timetable, the interim president issued a set ofarticles to replace the suspended constitution until a new one is drawn up. He gave tenlawyers a month to amend the constitution, to be reviewed within two months by 50civil-society figures and put to a national referendum a month later. All being well,parliamentary elections would be followed by a presidential one early in the new year.

　　西撒將軍迫切希望國家能恢復(fù)穩(wěn)定，也急于讓民眾相信，自己是真心打算盡快交出權(quán)力，所以很快他便敦促曼蘇爾制定了一套快速重返民主之路的方案。除了他那張日程緊張的時間表，臨時總統(tǒng)還同時頒布了一系列條款。因之前憲法暫停，這些條款在新憲法出臺前將充當(dāng)臨時憲法。根據(jù)他的安排，十名律師將花一個月修改憲法;在之后兩個月內(nèi)，50位民眾代表將對憲法進(jìn)行審核;一個月后，對新憲法公投。如果一切進(jìn)展順利，明年初將舉行總統(tǒng)大選，隨后選舉議會。

　　Mr Mansour also appointed Hazem al-Beblawi, a 77-year-old economist, as prime minister.Mohamed ElBaradei, a former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UNsnuclear watchdog, who is now a leader of the secular opposition, has been appointeddeputy president during the transition. Mr Beblawi has embarked on negotiations to form acabinet of technocrats, promising posts to members of the Brotherhood and of the SalafistsNour party.

　　曼蘇爾還任命77歲的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家哈齊姆?貝卜拉維為總理。前國際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)總干事穆罕穆德?巴拉迪，如今作為世俗反對派領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人之一，被任命為過渡政府副總統(tǒng)。貝卜拉維為了組建一個由專家構(gòu)成的內(nèi)閣，已著手談判。他承諾，將邀請穆兄會和薩拉菲斯特光明黨人士加入內(nèi)閣。

　　The Brothers have so far rejected Mr Mansours proposals in their entirety. Since theirsenior members have been rounded up and their television stations shut down, they are inno mood for compromise. All the elections we won have been thrown into the rubbish binand we have been excluded from the political process, so why would we accept this? asksAbdullah al-Keryoni, a youth member of the Brotherhood, protesting outside Cairos Rabeaal-Adawiya mosque.

　　目前為止，穆兄會拒絕了曼蘇爾的全部提議。自從他們的資深成員被捕、電視臺遭關(guān)閉，穆兄會是沒心情妥協(xié)的。我們贏得的所有選舉都遭人唾棄，政治議程也沒我們參加的份兒，既然這樣，我們憑什么要接受?年輕的穆兄會成員阿布達(dá)拉哈?阿克約尼在開羅拉比亞? 阿達(dá)維亞清真寺外抗議時問道。

　　Meanwhile, the National Salvation Front, a grouping of liberal opposition parties under MrElBaradeis co-chairmanship, said Mr Mansour had not consulted it before making hisdeclaration and would suggest changes. Tamarod , the youth movement thatled the protests to oust Mr Morsi, also criticised the sweeping powers reserved for MrMansour. And liberals nervously noted the reaffirmation in the interim presidentsstatement that sharia should be the basis of law, presumably as an inducement to bringthe Islamists back into peaceful politics. The Nour party, which had distanced itself from theBrotherhood after the coup, also objected to the content of Mr Mansours proclamation.

　　與此同時，由巴拉迪與他人共同領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的自由派反對黨聯(lián)盟埃及救國陣線表示，曼蘇爾在發(fā)布聲明前并沒征求他們的意見。聯(lián)盟將針對該聲明提交一些修改建議。發(fā)起抗議、罷黜穆爾西的新興反叛組織塔馬洛德，也譴責(zé)曼蘇爾不應(yīng)擁有這么大的權(quán)利。自由派人士則心有不安，他們注意到，臨時總統(tǒng)在聲明中再三強(qiáng)調(diào)法律應(yīng)以伊斯蘭教法為基礎(chǔ)。這似乎會誘使伊斯蘭主義者重新打破和平政治的局面。光明黨自從政變起，就與穆兄會劃清界限。而他們也反對曼蘇爾聲明中的規(guī)定。

　　So further clashes are likely. Ahmed el-Tayeb, the grand imam of the al-Azhar mosque andrector of the university of the same name, who is by tradition the leading authority of SunniIslam, has called for more serious efforts to reconcile the main camps and has warned thatEgypt could be heading towards civil war. The Muslim Brotherhood will adoptself-restraint as a strategy because they know violence allows their opponents to framethem as terrorists, says Khalil Anani, an Egyptian expert in Islamist movements. But theymay not be able to rein in young members. The killing of a Coptic priest and violence inSinai suggest that other groups are keen to stir up trouble.

　　所以，未來很可能會發(fā)生進(jìn)一步?jīng)_突。愛茲哈爾清真寺的大伊瑪目及同名大學(xué)校長呼吁付出更多切實(shí)努力，與埃及的主要陣營和解。他們還警告說，埃及可能正向內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的方向發(fā)展。穆兄會將把自制作為一項戰(zhàn)略，因?yàn)樗麄冎溃V諸暴力會被敵人冠上恐怖分子之名，伊斯蘭運(yùn)動的埃及專家卡哈里?阿納尼說道，但他們可能無法管束年輕成員。西奈半島發(fā)生暴力事件，一名科普特牧師被殺，看來有些組織是誠心滋擾生事。

　　If the army can reimpose order on the streets with little more bloodshed and start meeting itspromises to restore democracy, it will also have to set about rescuing the countrysshattered economy as a matter of extreme urgency. On July 9th Kuwait, Saudi Arabia andthe United Arab Emirates, pleased to see Mr Morsi go, offered up to $12 billion in cash,deposits and oilmore than the amount given to Mr Morsi by Qatar, his chief financier, duringhis year-long stint in power. Big business has broadly rallied to the new regime.

　　如果軍方能在盡量不殺戮的情況下再次迫使民間恢復(fù)有序狀態(tài)，并著手兌現(xiàn)它許下的的承諾恢復(fù)民主，那它也必須像處理頭等緊急大事一樣，開始拯救埃及支離破碎的經(jīng)濟(jì)。穆爾西下臺，科威特、沙特阿拉伯、阿聯(lián)酋喜聞樂見。這三個國家于7月9日宣布，將為埃及提供價值120億美元的現(xiàn)金、存款和石油。穆爾西在位的一年之中，埃及最大的投資國卡塔爾都沒有提供這么多資助。大型企業(yè)也普遍表示支持新政權(quán)。

　　But the generals, who performed dismally during their period as caretakers after MrMubaraks fall two-and-a-half years ago, know that millions may come out onto the streetsagain if they do not move faster and more cleverly than they did before. As streetdemonstrations subside, Egyptians are holding their breath.

　　但軍方將領(lǐng)心里清楚，如果不能在之前的基礎(chǔ)上加快步伐、更明智地決策，街道上就又會涌現(xiàn)無數(shù)抗議民眾。兩年半前穆巴拉克下臺后，他們作為過渡期代理人，表現(xiàn)得就不盡人意。如今，街道已慢慢恢復(fù)平靜，而埃及人正屏息以待。

　　Egypt after the coup

　　政變之后的埃及

　　THE words civil war pepper many a conversation in Cairo in the wake of the militarycoup on July 3rd that ousted Muhammad Morsi, a Muslim Brother, after only a year in power.On July 8th the prospect of all-out strife loomed larger after the security forces in Cairo shotdead at least 50 people who had been demanding Mr Morsis reinstatement.

　　7月3日，埃及發(fā)生軍事政變。穆斯林兄弟會的穆罕默德?穆爾西執(zhí)政僅一年之久，便遭罷黜。自那以后，開羅的民眾議論紛紛，內(nèi)戰(zhàn)這個字眼頻頻出現(xiàn)。6月8日，開羅的安全部隊士兵至少開槍打死了50名要求恢復(fù)穆爾西職位的民眾。形勢愈加嚴(yán)峻，全面大戰(zhàn)在即。

　　Egyptian society remains bitterly divided between a core of Brotherhood backers, who feelcheated, and the millions of people, including secular-minded and liberal Egyptians andquite a lot of religious ones, who wanted Mr Morsi to go. Above all, Egyptians need to agreeon a plan to move the country back to democracy. On July 8th the judge appointed by thearmy as an interim president unveiled a brisk timetable for bringing in a new constitutionand for parliamentary and presidential elections. It is bound, at best, to be a bumpy ride.

　　埃及社會仍是嚴(yán)重分裂，一邊是穆兄會的核心支持者，心中是上當(dāng)受騙的感覺;另一邊是數(shù)百萬民眾，其中不乏世俗自由派埃及人以及大批宗教人士，他們要的是穆爾西下臺。最重要的是，埃及人需要確定一個統(tǒng)一方案，讓國家重返民主之路。7月8日，由軍方任命的臨時總統(tǒng)最高法院院長迅速公布了一份安排緊湊的時間表，確定了新憲法的頒布時間以及議會選舉、總統(tǒng)大選時日。即便天時地利人和，這條路也注定坎坷。

　　The opposition is still crowing over Mr Morsis demise. Voices calling for the vanquishing ofterrorists, as the fiercer foes of the Muslim Brothers like to call them, seem louder thanthose calling for restraint and compromise. On the other side, Mr Morsis diehard disciples,fearing for their survival, refuse to consider anything less than his reinstatement, which thegenerals now in charge are sure to dismiss out of hand. Since July 3rd Mr Morsis peoplehave continued to mass in districts of eastern Cairo, where their support is strongest, toprotest against the overthrow of their democratically elected president.

　　反對派至今還在為推翻穆爾西而沾沾自喜。要求消滅恐怖分子的人似乎比呼吁克制、折衷的人更多。而另一邊，穆爾西的鐵桿支持者為了他們的存亡大計，要求穆爾西復(fù)職。若不滿足這個最低條件，一切免談。但目前的軍方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人肯定會當(dāng)即拒絕。自7月3日起，穆爾西的支持者就一直在開羅東部地區(qū)集會，抗議軍方罷免他們民主選舉的總統(tǒng)。

　　The two sides also disagree over who was to blame for the shooting on July 8th outside theRepublican Guard Club, where Mr Morsi was said to be held. The actions of the securityforces seemed plainly disproportionate, at the least. The interim president, Adly Mansour,called for an inquiry without suggesting its terms, leaving the whiff of a would-be cover-up.The security forces have never hidden their hostility to the Brothers.

　　雙方存在分歧的還有一點(diǎn)：誰該為7月8日發(fā)生共和國衛(wèi)隊俱樂部外的槍擊案負(fù)責(zé)。據(jù)傳，穆爾西當(dāng)時就軟禁于此。無論如何，守衛(wèi)士兵的行為看上去顯然是過分了。臨時總統(tǒng)阿茲利?曼蘇爾下令調(diào)查此案，但他并沒表達(dá)自己的立場，似乎有種想把案子壓下去的意味。而安全部隊從未掩飾過他們對穆兄會的敵意。

　　In response the Brotherhoods leaders called for an uprising against the army and its head,General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who launched the coup. The public prosecutor then issuedarrest warrants for the organisations leaders, including its supreme guide, charging themwith incitement to violence. Several hundred Brothers, including Mr Morsi, are behind bars,raising the spectre of Egypts deep state, as the security establishment is known, makinga comeback.

　　作為回應(yīng)，穆兄會的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人號召民眾起義，反對軍方和發(fā)動政變的軍方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人阿卜杜勒?法塔赫?西薩將軍。埃及檢方隨即對該組織領(lǐng)導(dǎo)發(fā)出逮捕令，指控他們煽動暴亂。如今，包括穆爾西在內(nèi)的幾百名穆兄會成員鋃鐺入獄，恐懼的氛圍已在醞釀，有著暗深勢力集團(tuán)之名的國家安全部官員似乎要卷土重來。

　　Keen to bring back stability and to persuade people that he sincerely wants to cede poweras soon as possible, General Sisi moved fast to prod Mr Mansour into setting a rapid returnto democracy. Along with his speedy timetable, the interim president issued a set ofarticles to replace the suspended constitution until a new one is drawn up. He gave tenlawyers a month to amend the constitution, to be reviewed within two months by 50civil-society figures and put to a national referendum a month later. All being well,parliamentary elections would be followed by a presidential one early in the new year.

　　西撒將軍迫切希望國家能恢復(fù)穩(wěn)定，也急于讓民眾相信，自己是真心打算盡快交出權(quán)力，所以很快他便敦促曼蘇爾制定了一套快速重返民主之路的方案。除了他那張日程緊張的時間表，臨時總統(tǒng)還同時頒布了一系列條款。因之前憲法暫停，這些條款在新憲法出臺前將充當(dāng)臨時憲法。根據(jù)他的安排，十名律師將花一個月修改憲法;在之后兩個月內(nèi)，50位民眾代表將對憲法進(jìn)行審核;一個月后，對新憲法公投。如果一切進(jìn)展順利，明年初將舉行總統(tǒng)大選，隨后選舉議會。

　　Mr Mansour also appointed Hazem al-Beblawi, a 77-year-old economist, as prime minister.Mohamed ElBaradei, a former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UNsnuclear watchdog, who is now a leader of the secular opposition, has been appointeddeputy president during the transition. Mr Beblawi has embarked on negotiations to form acabinet of technocrats, promising posts to members of the Brotherhood and of the SalafistsNour party.

　　曼蘇爾還任命77歲的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家哈齊姆?貝卜拉維為總理。前國際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)總干事穆罕穆德?巴拉迪，如今作為世俗反對派領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人之一，被任命為過渡政府副總統(tǒng)。貝卜拉維為了組建一個由專家構(gòu)成的內(nèi)閣，已著手談判。他承諾，將邀請穆兄會和薩拉菲斯特光明黨人士加入內(nèi)閣。

　　The Brothers have so far rejected Mr Mansours proposals in their entirety. Since theirsenior members have been rounded up and their television stations shut down, they are inno mood for compromise. All the elections we won have been thrown into the rubbish binand we have been excluded from the political process, so why would we accept this? asksAbdullah al-Keryoni, a youth member of the Brotherhood, protesting outside Cairos Rabeaal-Adawiya mosque.

　　目前為止，穆兄會拒絕了曼蘇爾的全部提議。自從他們的資深成員被捕、電視臺遭關(guān)閉，穆兄會是沒心情妥協(xié)的。我們贏得的所有選舉都遭人唾棄，政治議程也沒我們參加的份兒，既然這樣，我們憑什么要接受?年輕的穆兄會成員阿布達(dá)拉哈?阿克約尼在開羅拉比亞? 阿達(dá)維亞清真寺外抗議時問道。

　　Meanwhile, the National Salvation Front, a grouping of liberal opposition parties under MrElBaradeis co-chairmanship, said Mr Mansour had not consulted it before making hisdeclaration and would suggest changes. Tamarod , the youth movement thatled the protests to oust Mr Morsi, also criticised the sweeping powers reserved for MrMansour. And liberals nervously noted the reaffirmation in the interim presidentsstatement that sharia should be the basis of law, presumably as an inducement to bringthe Islamists back into peaceful politics. The Nour party, which had distanced itself from theBrotherhood after the coup, also objected to the content of Mr Mansours proclamation.

　　與此同時，由巴拉迪與他人共同領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的自由派反對黨聯(lián)盟埃及救國陣線表示，曼蘇爾在發(fā)布聲明前并沒征求他們的意見。聯(lián)盟將針對該聲明提交一些修改建議。發(fā)起抗議、罷黜穆爾西的新興反叛組織塔馬洛德，也譴責(zé)曼蘇爾不應(yīng)擁有這么大的權(quán)利。自由派人士則心有不安，他們注意到，臨時總統(tǒng)在聲明中再三強(qiáng)調(diào)法律應(yīng)以伊斯蘭教法為基礎(chǔ)。這似乎會誘使伊斯蘭主義者重新打破和平政治的局面。光明黨自從政變起，就與穆兄會劃清界限。而他們也反對曼蘇爾聲明中的規(guī)定。

　　So further clashes are likely. Ahmed el-Tayeb, the grand imam of the al-Azhar mosque andrector of the university of the same name, who is by tradition the leading authority of SunniIslam, has called for more serious efforts to reconcile the main camps and has warned thatEgypt could be heading towards civil war. The Muslim Brotherhood will adoptself-restraint as a strategy because they know violence allows their opponents to framethem as terrorists, says Khalil Anani, an Egyptian expert in Islamist movements. But theymay not be able to rein in young members. The killing of a Coptic priest and violence inSinai suggest that other groups are keen to stir up trouble.

　　所以，未來很可能會發(fā)生進(jìn)一步?jīng)_突。愛茲哈爾清真寺的大伊瑪目及同名大學(xué)校長呼吁付出更多切實(shí)努力，與埃及的主要陣營和解。他們還警告說，埃及可能正向內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的方向發(fā)展。穆兄會將把自制作為一項戰(zhàn)略，因?yàn)樗麄冎溃V諸暴力會被敵人冠上恐怖分子之名，伊斯蘭運(yùn)動的埃及專家卡哈里?阿納尼說道，但他們可能無法管束年輕成員。西奈半島發(fā)生暴力事件，一名科普特牧師被殺，看來有些組織是誠心滋擾生事。

　　If the army can reimpose order on the streets with little more bloodshed and start meeting itspromises to restore democracy, it will also have to set about rescuing the countrysshattered economy as a matter of extreme urgency. On July 9th Kuwait, Saudi Arabia andthe United Arab Emirates, pleased to see Mr Morsi go, offered up to $12 billion in cash,deposits and oilmore than the amount given to Mr Morsi by Qatar, his chief financier, duringhis year-long stint in power. Big business has broadly rallied to the new regime.

　　如果軍方能在盡量不殺戮的情況下再次迫使民間恢復(fù)有序狀態(tài)，并著手兌現(xiàn)它許下的的承諾恢復(fù)民主，那它也必須像處理頭等緊急大事一樣，開始拯救埃及支離破碎的經(jīng)濟(jì)。穆爾西下臺，科威特、沙特阿拉伯、阿聯(lián)酋喜聞樂見。這三個國家于7月9日宣布，將為埃及提供價值120億美元的現(xiàn)金、存款和石油。穆爾西在位的一年之中，埃及最大的投資國卡塔爾都沒有提供這么多資助。大型企業(yè)也普遍表示支持新政權(quán)。

　　But the generals, who performed dismally during their period as caretakers after MrMubaraks fall two-and-a-half years ago, know that millions may come out onto the streetsagain if they do not move faster and more cleverly than they did before. As streetdemonstrations subside, Egyptians are holding their breath.

　　但軍方將領(lǐng)心里清楚，如果不能在之前的基礎(chǔ)上加快步伐、更明智地決策，街道上就又會涌現(xiàn)無數(shù)抗議民眾。兩年半前穆巴拉克下臺后，他們作為過渡期代理人，表現(xiàn)得就不盡人意。如今，街道已慢慢恢復(fù)平靜，而埃及人正屏息以待。