Western airliner manufacturers seem to be tripping over themselves in their eagerness to sign collaborative agreements with Asian partners as a low-cost route to developing new airliners. Their potential Asian partners seem to be tripping over themselves to sign such agreements， as a low-cost route to acquiring new airliner technology. If they are not careful the two sides will end up tripping over each other： the one by selling its birth-right for short-term gain， the other by trying to break into a market which isnt big enough to sustain it.

　　Technology transfer works in a growing market， where the aspirations of the new entrant receiving that technology can be met through expansion. The airliner market is not such a device.

　　Even the most optimistic projections of airliner sales for the next 20 years show that airliner manufacture can only be profitable if a small number of aircraft builders share the available sales. It follows that if new manufacturers come into the market and take sales， their sales must come from substitution， not expansion.

　　Given the complexity of todays airliners， it is unlikely that any new entrant will have both the financial and technical resources to come into the market without the involvement of an established manufacturer. In the short term， such involvement may not be to the exclusive benefit of the new entrant： most of the established manufacturers are searching for ways to reduce costs of manufacture.

　　In the short term， it can be of benefit to an established Western manufacturer to have either components of complete air frames made or assembled in lower-wage economics such a China， Taiwan or Korea， while retaining the design， development and marketing of aircraft for itself. It would be a very unwise Western manufacturer which did not heed the fact that these developing economies are acquiring skills ( like computing ) at least as quickly as they are acquiring skills in metallbashing.

　　The danger comes when the new entrant no longer needs the established Western partner because it has acquired the technical and intellectual ability to design and build its own aircraft. An Asian partner may well find itself in the happy position of having the low-cost labour base， the high-cost technology base and the vital financial base to build a new airliner.

　　Western airliner manufacturers seem to be tripping over themselves in their eagerness to sign collaborative agreements with Asian partners as a low-cost route to developing new airliners. Their potential Asian partners seem to be tripping over themselves to sign such agreements， as a low-cost route to acquiring new airliner technology. If they are not careful the two sides will end up tripping over each other： the one by selling its birth-right for short-term gain， the other by trying to break into a market which isnt big enough to sustain it.

　　Technology transfer works in a growing market， where the aspirations of the new entrant receiving that technology can be met through expansion. The airliner market is not such a device.

　　Even the most optimistic projections of airliner sales for the next 20 years show that airliner manufacture can only be profitable if a small number of aircraft builders share the available sales. It follows that if new manufacturers come into the market and take sales， their sales must come from substitution， not expansion.

　　Given the complexity of todays airliners， it is unlikely that any new entrant will have both the financial and technical resources to come into the market without the involvement of an established manufacturer. In the short term， such involvement may not be to the exclusive benefit of the new entrant： most of the established manufacturers are searching for ways to reduce costs of manufacture.

　　In the short term， it can be of benefit to an established Western manufacturer to have either components of complete air frames made or assembled in lower-wage economics such a China， Taiwan or Korea， while retaining the design， development and marketing of aircraft for itself. It would be a very unwise Western manufacturer which did not heed the fact that these developing economies are acquiring skills ( like computing ) at least as quickly as they are acquiring skills in metallbashing.

　　The danger comes when the new entrant no longer needs the established Western partner because it has acquired the technical and intellectual ability to design and build its own aircraft. An Asian partner may well find itself in the happy position of having the low-cost labour base， the high-cost technology base and the vital financial base to build a new airliner.