Foreign policy

　　外交政策

　　Home alone

　　獨守本土

　　As China rises, must Australia tremble?

　　當中國崛起時，澳大利亞必將戰栗?

　　BACK IN THE days of the tyranny of distance, the primal terror of Australians was the fear ofabandonment. During the countrys first few decades it looked for its security to Britain, afriendly but far-off power. After Singapore fell to the Japanese in 1942, Britain abandoned itsformer colony. Fortunately, America took its place and has been guaranteeing Australiassecurity ever since. Even so, Australia is once again feeling nervous about finding itself alone,prompted by three changes. The first is the growing economic power of China, followed closelyby its growing political and military power. The second is that Americas role as the single poleof a unipolar world is inevitably coming to an end. And third, Australias new pattern of trademeans that for the first time its main commercial partner, China, is not a strategic ally. Noneof this involves an immediate threat to Australians, but it makes life more complicated.

　　在世界還被距離所主宰的時代，澳大利亞人最大的恐懼莫過于遭到拋棄。在該國成立之初的幾十年中，澳大利亞仰仗友好卻遙遠的強國英國為其提供安全保障。當新加坡于1942年被日本人攻陷之后，英國拋棄了這片先前的殖民地。幸好，美國接了英國的位置，并在此后一直保障著澳大利亞的安全。即便如此，由于三方面變化所致，澳大利亞還是再一次為發覺自己孤立無援而憂心忡忡。第一種變化是中國正在增強的經濟實力，以及該國緊隨經濟實力增長而增長的政治與軍事實力。第二種變化在于，美國所扮演的單極世界中唯一一極的角色正在不可避免地走向終結。第三種變化則是，澳大利亞新的貿易格局意味著出現了前所未有的情況，即該國主要的商業伙伴中國，并不是自己的戰略盟友。對于澳大利亞人而言，所有這一切并沒有包含迫在眉睫的威脅，但它卻使生活變得更加復雜。

　　Not yet on their doorstep. For years Australia wasneurotically concerned about Indonesia, a hugeneighbour that has sometimes looked violent orunstable but now seems benign, democratic andrather successful. Smaller neighbours, however, aremore worrying. In Papua New Guinea, for example,administered by Australia from 1906 to 1973, manyof the social indicators are heading down and it isbecoming increasingly violent. Some of the tinyisland states that speckle the map of the Pacific alsomake uncomfortable neighbours. Fiji has coups, theSolomons has scandals, and almost all have struggling economies. Since poverty and sizemake them potentially easy to influence, they need care and attention.

　　不過威脅尚未兵臨城下。多年來，澳大利亞對于印度尼西亞抱有一種神經質般的擔憂，印尼是一個曾經時而看似狂暴或不穩定的龐大鄰邦，但該國如今看起來既溫和又民主，而且相當成功。不過，規模較小的鄰國則更加令人擔心。例如在1906年至1973年間由澳大利亞管理的巴布亞新幾內亞，該國許多社會指標正在下滑，暴力色彩也日趨濃重。散布于太平洋版圖上的狹小島國中，也有一些變成了令人不安的鄰居。斐濟發生政變，所羅門群島出現丑聞，而且這些國家的經濟形勢幾乎都是舉步維艱。貧困和狹小使得它們在潛在層面上易于受到影響，因此這些國家需要得到關照和注意。

　　The wider region is the larger worry, partly because it encompasses so many poor, autocratic orunstable countries, partly because Australia does not fit in very comfortably. It has never reallytried to pass itself off as an Asian country, nor been accepted as such. Instead, it has madeitself seem less out of place by joining, and sometimes helping to create, various regionalgroups. Many of these are fine as far as they go, but some accept too many nasty members to allow useful agreement, and even the more discriminating clubs havetheir tensions. Mr Rudd, as prime minister, worked hard to promote the creation of an Asia-Pacific Community in which everything from security, trade and terrorism to energy, diseaseand natural disasters would be discussed, filling a large gap in the other arrangements. It mayprove useful if it comes off.

　　部分是因為更廣闊的地區包含著那么多貧困、獨裁或不穩定的國家，部分是由于澳大利亞并沒有舒舒服服地融入其中，因此這片區域更令澳大利亞感到擔憂。澳大利亞從未真正試圖扮作一個亞洲國家，也從來沒有被接受為一個亞洲國家。該國轉而通過加入各種類型的地區集團，以使自己在這片區域內看上去并沒有那么格格不入。此類集團中有許多就目前的發展而言還算不錯，不過有些集團卻因為接納了太多可憎的成員，而無法產生有用的協定，而且即便是那些挑選成員時更加注意區分的集團，也存在著自己的緊張局面。陸克文在擔任澳大利亞總理時，曾努力推動亞太共同體的創建，在這一組織中，各方可以對從安全、貿易及恐怖主義，到能源、疾病及自然災害等所有議題展開討論，它將填補其他安排所留下的大片空白。如果該集團能夠成功建立，它或許將被證明大有裨益。

　　The political task, though, has to some extent been taken over by the G20, in whose creationMr Rudd played a role, helping to ensure that it was not confined to just 14 countries. This isthe natural forum for a middle-ranking power, such as Australia, with global as well as regionalinterests. Australia, remember, has sent its troops to fight in wars from South Africa toVietnam. Nowadays they go to Iraq and Afghanistan. It is clearly right that it should have aplace among democracies of a certain economic weight, such as Canada, Mexico, South Koreaand Turkey.

　　不過，這一政治任務卻在某種程度上已被二十國集團接手承擔，陸克文在后者的創建中也發揮了作用，他幫助確保該組織并不僅限于14個國家。對于類似澳大利亞這樣一個既具有地區利益，也擁有全球利益的中等強國而言，二十國集團是一個天然論壇。請記住一點：從南非到越南，澳大利亞都曾出兵參戰，如今，澳軍則前往伊拉克和阿富汗作戰。澳大利亞應當在諸如加拿大、墨西哥、韓國以及土耳其等具有一定經濟分量的民主國家中占據一席之地，這一點顯然并無不當之處。

　　Foreign policy

　　外交政策

　　Home alone

　　獨守本土

　　As China rises, must Australia tremble?

　　當中國崛起時，澳大利亞必將戰栗?

　　BACK IN THE days of the tyranny of distance, the primal terror of Australians was the fear ofabandonment. During the countrys first few decades it looked for its security to Britain, afriendly but far-off power. After Singapore fell to the Japanese in 1942, Britain abandoned itsformer colony. Fortunately, America took its place and has been guaranteeing Australiassecurity ever since. Even so, Australia is once again feeling nervous about finding itself alone,prompted by three changes. The first is the growing economic power of China, followed closelyby its growing political and military power. The second is that Americas role as the single poleof a unipolar world is inevitably coming to an end. And third, Australias new pattern of trademeans that for the first time its main commercial partner, China, is not a strategic ally. Noneof this involves an immediate threat to Australians, but it makes life more complicated.

　　在世界還被距離所主宰的時代，澳大利亞人最大的恐懼莫過于遭到拋棄。在該國成立之初的幾十年中，澳大利亞仰仗友好卻遙遠的強國英國為其提供安全保障。當新加坡于1942年被日本人攻陷之后，英國拋棄了這片先前的殖民地。幸好，美國接了英國的位置，并在此后一直保障著澳大利亞的安全。即便如此，由于三方面變化所致，澳大利亞還是再一次為發覺自己孤立無援而憂心忡忡。第一種變化是中國正在增強的經濟實力，以及該國緊隨經濟實力增長而增長的政治與軍事實力。第二種變化在于，美國所扮演的單極世界中唯一一極的角色正在不可避免地走向終結。第三種變化則是，澳大利亞新的貿易格局意味著出現了前所未有的情況，即該國主要的商業伙伴中國，并不是自己的戰略盟友。對于澳大利亞人而言，所有這一切并沒有包含迫在眉睫的威脅，但它卻使生活變得更加復雜。

　　Not yet on their doorstep. For years Australia wasneurotically concerned about Indonesia, a hugeneighbour that has sometimes looked violent orunstable but now seems benign, democratic andrather successful. Smaller neighbours, however, aremore worrying. In Papua New Guinea, for example,administered by Australia from 1906 to 1973, manyof the social indicators are heading down and it isbecoming increasingly violent. Some of the tinyisland states that speckle the map of the Pacific alsomake uncomfortable neighbours. Fiji has coups, theSolomons has scandals, and almost all have struggling economies. Since poverty and sizemake them potentially easy to influence, they need care and attention.

　　不過威脅尚未兵臨城下。多年來，澳大利亞對于印度尼西亞抱有一種神經質般的擔憂，印尼是一個曾經時而看似狂暴或不穩定的龐大鄰邦，但該國如今看起來既溫和又民主，而且相當成功。不過，規模較小的鄰國則更加令人擔心。例如在1906年至1973年間由澳大利亞管理的巴布亞新幾內亞，該國許多社會指標正在下滑，暴力色彩也日趨濃重。散布于太平洋版圖上的狹小島國中，也有一些變成了令人不安的鄰居。斐濟發生政變，所羅門群島出現丑聞，而且這些國家的經濟形勢幾乎都是舉步維艱。貧困和狹小使得它們在潛在層面上易于受到影響，因此這些國家需要得到關照和注意。

　　The wider region is the larger worry, partly because it encompasses so many poor, autocratic orunstable countries, partly because Australia does not fit in very comfortably. It has never reallytried to pass itself off as an Asian country, nor been accepted as such. Instead, it has madeitself seem less out of place by joining, and sometimes helping to create, various regionalgroups. Many of these are fine as far as they go, but some accept too many nasty members to allow useful agreement, and even the more discriminating clubs havetheir tensions. Mr Rudd, as prime minister, worked hard to promote the creation of an Asia-Pacific Community in which everything from security, trade and terrorism to energy, diseaseand natural disasters would be discussed, filling a large gap in the other arrangements. It mayprove useful if it comes off.

　　部分是因為更廣闊的地區包含著那么多貧困、獨裁或不穩定的國家，部分是由于澳大利亞并沒有舒舒服服地融入其中，因此這片區域更令澳大利亞感到擔憂。澳大利亞從未真正試圖扮作一個亞洲國家，也從來沒有被接受為一個亞洲國家。該國轉而通過加入各種類型的地區集團，以使自己在這片區域內看上去并沒有那么格格不入。此類集團中有許多就目前的發展而言還算不錯，不過有些集團卻因為接納了太多可憎的成員，而無法產生有用的協定，而且即便是那些挑選成員時更加注意區分的集團，也存在著自己的緊張局面。陸克文在擔任澳大利亞總理時，曾努力推動亞太共同體的創建，在這一組織中，各方可以對從安全、貿易及恐怖主義，到能源、疾病及自然災害等所有議題展開討論，它將填補其他安排所留下的大片空白。如果該集團能夠成功建立，它或許將被證明大有裨益。

　　The political task, though, has to some extent been taken over by the G20, in whose creationMr Rudd played a role, helping to ensure that it was not confined to just 14 countries. This isthe natural forum for a middle-ranking power, such as Australia, with global as well as regionalinterests. Australia, remember, has sent its troops to fight in wars from South Africa toVietnam. Nowadays they go to Iraq and Afghanistan. It is clearly right that it should have aplace among democracies of a certain economic weight, such as Canada, Mexico, South Koreaand Turkey.

　　不過，這一政治任務卻在某種程度上已被二十國集團接手承擔，陸克文在后者的創建中也發揮了作用，他幫助確保該組織并不僅限于14個國家。對于類似澳大利亞這樣一個既具有地區利益，也擁有全球利益的中等強國而言，二十國集團是一個天然論壇。請記住一點：從南非到越南，澳大利亞都曾出兵參戰，如今，澳軍則前往伊拉克和阿富汗作戰。澳大利亞應當在諸如加拿大、墨西哥、韓國以及土耳其等具有一定經濟分量的民主國家中占據一席之地，這一點顯然并無不當之處。