EVEN people who dont normally care much forfootball tune in to the Super Bowl to watch the bestcommercials Madison Avenue can dream up. Themost talked about this year was Chryslers grittytribute to the economic revival of America andDetroit. More short film than commercial, it endswith the actor Clint Eastwood huskily declaring thatOur second half is about to begin.

　　超級碗開始時，就連平時不關注橄欖球的人們也紛紛轉臺，觀看比賽間隙美國廣告界獨運匠心的作品。今年，克萊斯勒汽車公司的廣告讓觀眾津津樂道，特別是廣告中向美國及汽車之城底特律的經濟復蘇致以的崇高敬意。與其稱之為廣告，倒不如將它歸為一部微電影。最后，它以演員克林特伊斯特伍德沙啞磁性的聲音結尾：我們的下半場馬上拉開帷幕。

　　The muscular patriotism brought lumps to the throats of sentimental viewers; the morecynically minded called it a re-election ad for Barack Obama, whose administration savedChrysler from oblivion with a bail-out in 2009. A better explanation may simply be timing:it coincides with the best evidence in months that Americas economy, led by manufacturing,really is on the mend.

　　廣告中流露的熊熊愛國心使不少感性觀眾哽咽欲泣;相比之下，持懷疑態度的人則認為這是貝拉克奧巴馬的連任競選廣告，因為2009年奧巴馬政府以緊急資助資金從遺忘中挽救了克萊斯勒。此外，時機也許是一個更好更明了的解讀：廣告播出于美國數月以來經濟形勢最好的時候，以制造業領軍的美國經濟，確實正在復蘇。

　　Five days before its ad aired, Chrysler, now part of Italys Fiat, reported its best Januarysales since 2008, up 44% from a year earlier. The next day it announced it would hire 1,800people at a plant in Belvidere, Illinois, to build its new Dodge Dart. The good news is hardlyconfined to Chrysler. The auto industry as a whole sold 1.2m vehicles in January, manymore than expected, and a 4% increase from December.

　　此廣告播出五天前，現已被意大利菲亞特收購的克萊斯勒，通報了自2008年至今最高的一月份銷售額，比去年同期增長了44%。第二天，公司宣布將雇傭1800名工人去伊利諾斯州貝爾維戴爾制造新款道奇Dart汽車。好消息并不僅僅局限于克萊斯勒一家公司。整個汽車產業一月份售出一百二十萬輛汽車，遠遠超越預期，比去年十二月份銷量增長4%。

　　Then on February 3rd the government reported that non-farm employment jumped 243,000in January, or 0.2%, from December, the best in nine months, led by manufacturers, whoboosted payrolls by 50,000. Government statisticians also revised data for the previous yearand found that at year-end there were 266,000 more jobs than had previously beenthought.

　　另外，二月三日政府指出，非農業就業人數一月份激增二十四萬三千人，較十二月增長0.2%，為九個月以來最佳紀錄，當然應歸功于猛增五萬編制雇員的制造業。同時，政府統計員通過修正上一年數據，發現實際上2011年底已創造出超越估計的二十六萬六千多個工作崗位。

　　The unemployment rate, which has repeatedly surprised economists with the speed of itsdescent, did so again: it fell to 8.3%, a three-year low, from 8.5%. Its decline from a peakof 10% in October 2009 has been helped by unusually stagnant growth in the labour force.When fewer people want to work, fewer are counted as unemployed. That, however, wasnot the case in January when the labour force grew by 250,000. The unemployment ratedropped anyway because the number of employed people leapt by 631,000.

　　屢創新低的失業率震驚了經濟學家，日前再次給人們帶來驚喜：它從8.5%又降至8.3%，為三年來歷史最低點。失業率之所以能從2009年十月的頂峰值10%降至現在的水平，可以說零增長的勞動力起到了一定作用。想找工作的人越少，失業的人數也就越少。但是，這不是一月份勞動力增加二十五萬人的原因。歸根到底，就業人數激增六十三萬零一千人使失業率降低。改：但是一月份的勞動力增加了二十五萬人，所以這個月的失業率下降并不是因為勞動力增長緩慢，而是因為就業人數激增了整整六十三萬零一千人。

　　The report was greeted with relief bordering on joy by the stockmarket and, no doubt, by MrObamas campaign team. But their happiness should be tempered by the reflection that inboth 2010 and 2011, job growth started out briskly only to fizzle out again.

　　報告讓廣大群眾松了口氣，繼而股票市場喜迎飄紅，當然奧巴馬總統的競選團隊也可輕松一下。但是，他們在興奮之余更應保持頭腦清醒：為何2010年和2011年就業光明的回暖之勢卻不明夭折了。

　　Will it do so again this year, possibly dooming Mr Obamas re-election? Two factors explainthe economys previous false starts. First, banks, households and governments are paringtheir debts. That deleveraging has further to go, but seems to have slowed as rock-bottominterest rates coax consumers to indulge some of their pent-up demand for homes and cars.State and local government lay-offs have also slowed. Meanwhile firms that were able tomeet increased demand by boosting the productivity of their existing workforce no longercan. Productivity growth, which topped 6% in the wake of the recession, slowed to just 0.5%in the fourth quarter . In December employers reported total jobvacancies of 3.4m, close to its highest since 2008.

　　今年是否還會如此?如果狀況再次發生，恐怕奧巴馬的連任競選將面臨破產。兩個原因可解釋之前美國經濟錯誤的著手點。第一，銀行，居民，和政府都在逐步清還債務。盡管降低債務杠桿還有很長的路要走，但至少借款已經減緩，與此同時，低至谷底的銀行利率也誘惑消費者暫時滿足下他們對住房及汽車壓抑已久的購買欲。此外，之前，工廠可以通過提高已有勞動力的生產效率滿足日益增加的需求，但現在，這種方法行不通了。即使生產效率一度在經濟衰退后以6%的速度增長，去年第四季度也降低到了0.5%。去年十二月，雇主反饋職位空缺總量達到三百四十萬，接近2008年以來的最高值。

　　The second stumbling block has been bad luck. In both 2010 and 2011 Europes sovereigndebt crisis flared up, damaging confidence in America. Last year the Arab spring sent petrolprices soaring, pinching incomes, while Japans earthquake and tsunami disrupted supplychains.

　　第二個障礙物可歸結為接踵而來的霉運。在2010年和2011年里，歐洲主權國家的債務危機愈演愈烈，甚至打擊了美國對金融市場的信心。去年，阿拉伯之春又把汽油價格推上天，消費者入不敷出。日本大地震和海嘯更嚴重干擾了供應鏈。

　　The threat of more such setbacks still hangs over the economy. Europes crisis has not beensolved. The intensifying confrontation between Iran and the west has driven petrol prices up25 cents per gallon since mid-December. Federal austerity remains a threat: Congress isonce again locked in confrontation over a payroll-tax break that expires at the end of thismonth and a raft of other tax increases and spending cuts will kick in next year unless itintervenes. In the economy, as in football, there is no guarantee that the second half will beeasier than the first.

　　更多諸如此類的阻礙仍像噩夢般籠罩在美國經濟周圍。歐債危機尚未解決。伊朗與西方社會的緊張局勢使每加侖汽油價自十二月中旬以來上漲了二十五美分。聯邦政府的財政緊縮政策仍是一個威脅：針對本月到期的工資稅減免政策，國會再一次陷入僵局。除非國會加以干涉，有關增加稅收和削減開支的一系列規定將自行生效。總之，在復蘇經濟的過程中，正如橄欖球比賽一樣，什么也無法擔保下半場能比上半場輕松，抑或出現好兆頭就意味著勝利。

　　EVEN people who dont normally care much forfootball tune in to the Super Bowl to watch the bestcommercials Madison Avenue can dream up. Themost talked about this year was Chryslers grittytribute to the economic revival of America andDetroit. More short film than commercial, it endswith the actor Clint Eastwood huskily declaring thatOur second half is about to begin.

　　超級碗開始時，就連平時不關注橄欖球的人們也紛紛轉臺，觀看比賽間隙美國廣告界獨運匠心的作品。今年，克萊斯勒汽車公司的廣告讓觀眾津津樂道，特別是廣告中向美國及汽車之城底特律的經濟復蘇致以的崇高敬意。與其稱之為廣告，倒不如將它歸為一部微電影。最后，它以演員克林特伊斯特伍德沙啞磁性的聲音結尾：我們的下半場馬上拉開帷幕。

　　The muscular patriotism brought lumps to the throats of sentimental viewers; the morecynically minded called it a re-election ad for Barack Obama, whose administration savedChrysler from oblivion with a bail-out in 2009. A better explanation may simply be timing:it coincides with the best evidence in months that Americas economy, led by manufacturing,really is on the mend.

　　廣告中流露的熊熊愛國心使不少感性觀眾哽咽欲泣;相比之下，持懷疑態度的人則認為這是貝拉克奧巴馬的連任競選廣告，因為2009年奧巴馬政府以緊急資助資金從遺忘中挽救了克萊斯勒。此外，時機也許是一個更好更明了的解讀：廣告播出于美國數月以來經濟形勢最好的時候，以制造業領軍的美國經濟，確實正在復蘇。

　　Five days before its ad aired, Chrysler, now part of Italys Fiat, reported its best Januarysales since 2008, up 44% from a year earlier. The next day it announced it would hire 1,800people at a plant in Belvidere, Illinois, to build its new Dodge Dart. The good news is hardlyconfined to Chrysler. The auto industry as a whole sold 1.2m vehicles in January, manymore than expected, and a 4% increase from December.

　　此廣告播出五天前，現已被意大利菲亞特收購的克萊斯勒，通報了自2008年至今最高的一月份銷售額，比去年同期增長了44%。第二天，公司宣布將雇傭1800名工人去伊利諾斯州貝爾維戴爾制造新款道奇Dart汽車。好消息并不僅僅局限于克萊斯勒一家公司。整個汽車產業一月份售出一百二十萬輛汽車，遠遠超越預期，比去年十二月份銷量增長4%。

　　Then on February 3rd the government reported that non-farm employment jumped 243,000in January, or 0.2%, from December, the best in nine months, led by manufacturers, whoboosted payrolls by 50,000. Government statisticians also revised data for the previous yearand found that at year-end there were 266,000 more jobs than had previously beenthought.

　　另外，二月三日政府指出，非農業就業人數一月份激增二十四萬三千人，較十二月增長0.2%，為九個月以來最佳紀錄，當然應歸功于猛增五萬編制雇員的制造業。同時，政府統計員通過修正上一年數據，發現實際上2011年底已創造出超越估計的二十六萬六千多個工作崗位。

　　The unemployment rate, which has repeatedly surprised economists with the speed of itsdescent, did so again: it fell to 8.3%, a three-year low, from 8.5%. Its decline from a peakof 10% in October 2009 has been helped by unusually stagnant growth in the labour force.When fewer people want to work, fewer are counted as unemployed. That, however, wasnot the case in January when the labour force grew by 250,000. The unemployment ratedropped anyway because the number of employed people leapt by 631,000.

　　屢創新低的失業率震驚了經濟學家，日前再次給人們帶來驚喜：它從8.5%又降至8.3%，為三年來歷史最低點。失業率之所以能從2009年十月的頂峰值10%降至現在的水平，可以說零增長的勞動力起到了一定作用。想找工作的人越少，失業的人數也就越少。但是，這不是一月份勞動力增加二十五萬人的原因。歸根到底，就業人數激增六十三萬零一千人使失業率降低。改：但是一月份的勞動力增加了二十五萬人，所以這個月的失業率下降并不是因為勞動力增長緩慢，而是因為就業人數激增了整整六十三萬零一千人。

　　The report was greeted with relief bordering on joy by the stockmarket and, no doubt, by MrObamas campaign team. But their happiness should be tempered by the reflection that inboth 2010 and 2011, job growth started out briskly only to fizzle out again.

　　報告讓廣大群眾松了口氣，繼而股票市場喜迎飄紅，當然奧巴馬總統的競選團隊也可輕松一下。但是，他們在興奮之余更應保持頭腦清醒：為何2010年和2011年就業光明的回暖之勢卻不明夭折了。

　　Will it do so again this year, possibly dooming Mr Obamas re-election? Two factors explainthe economys previous false starts. First, banks, households and governments are paringtheir debts. That deleveraging has further to go, but seems to have slowed as rock-bottominterest rates coax consumers to indulge some of their pent-up demand for homes and cars.State and local government lay-offs have also slowed. Meanwhile firms that were able tomeet increased demand by boosting the productivity of their existing workforce no longercan. Productivity growth, which topped 6% in the wake of the recession, slowed to just 0.5%in the fourth quarter . In December employers reported total jobvacancies of 3.4m, close to its highest since 2008.

　　今年是否還會如此?如果狀況再次發生，恐怕奧巴馬的連任競選將面臨破產。兩個原因可解釋之前美國經濟錯誤的著手點。第一，銀行，居民，和政府都在逐步清還債務。盡管降低債務杠桿還有很長的路要走，但至少借款已經減緩，與此同時，低至谷底的銀行利率也誘惑消費者暫時滿足下他們對住房及汽車壓抑已久的購買欲。此外，之前，工廠可以通過提高已有勞動力的生產效率滿足日益增加的需求，但現在，這種方法行不通了。即使生產效率一度在經濟衰退后以6%的速度增長，去年第四季度也降低到了0.5%。去年十二月，雇主反饋職位空缺總量達到三百四十萬，接近2008年以來的最高值。

　　The second stumbling block has been bad luck. In both 2010 and 2011 Europes sovereigndebt crisis flared up, damaging confidence in America. Last year the Arab spring sent petrolprices soaring, pinching incomes, while Japans earthquake and tsunami disrupted supplychains.

　　第二個障礙物可歸結為接踵而來的霉運。在2010年和2011年里，歐洲主權國家的債務危機愈演愈烈，甚至打擊了美國對金融市場的信心。去年，阿拉伯之春又把汽油價格推上天，消費者入不敷出。日本大地震和海嘯更嚴重干擾了供應鏈。

　　The threat of more such setbacks still hangs over the economy. Europes crisis has not beensolved. The intensifying confrontation between Iran and the west has driven petrol prices up25 cents per gallon since mid-December. Federal austerity remains a threat: Congress isonce again locked in confrontation over a payroll-tax break that expires at the end of thismonth and a raft of other tax increases and spending cuts will kick in next year unless itintervenes. In the economy, as in football, there is no guarantee that the second half will beeasier than the first.

　　更多諸如此類的阻礙仍像噩夢般籠罩在美國經濟周圍。歐債危機尚未解決。伊朗與西方社會的緊張局勢使每加侖汽油價自十二月中旬以來上漲了二十五美分。聯邦政府的財政緊縮政策仍是一個威脅：針對本月到期的工資稅減免政策，國會再一次陷入僵局。除非國會加以干涉，有關增加稅收和削減開支的一系列規定將自行生效。總之，在復蘇經濟的過程中，正如橄欖球比賽一樣，什么也無法擔保下半場能比上半場輕松，抑或出現好兆頭就意味著勝利。