Pakistan sfuture;Resilient mess;

　　巴基斯坦未來;撲朔迷離的未來;

　　The Future of Pakistan. By Stephen Cohen andothers.

　　《巴基斯坦的未來》，斯蒂芬柯恩著。

　　It seems optimistic to write a book called TheFuture of Pakistan it assumes the country hasone. Tot up the assorted threats and its survivalmay look dubious: Islamists, separatists,potentially stray nuclear weapons, the war in Afghanistan, economic and natural disasters,a booming and restless young population, unfathomably venal leaders, rotting institutionsand violent megacities. Any of these could yet spell the country s demise .

　　作者似乎以樂觀的態度寫《巴基斯坦的未來》這本書;書中倒是希望巴基斯坦的未來會讓人樂觀。綜合各種威脅，巴基斯坦的猶存似乎讓人疑慮重重：伊斯蘭教徒和獨立主義者盛行，潛在的核武器事端，阿富汗戰爭，經濟和自然災難，迅速增加的頹廢的年輕人，國家領導人卷入受賄深淵，機構腐敗，大城市暴力事件不斷。上面的任何一個事件可能招致這個國家的滅亡。

　　Individually, none of the 17 expert contributors to this frank and detailed volume is quite soapocalyptic. But their collective mood is grim. In pondering scenarios for the coming years,these various specialists have produced a flood of gloomy details and prognoses.

　　不同的是，在這本平實而詳細的書中，17位撰稿人沒有任何一位作出預言般的警告。但是這些專家都感覺前景的黯淡。當思考未來愿景時，這些來自各個行業的專家都傳達大量令人沮喪的事實和預測。

　　Stephen Cohen, a well-respected observer of Pakistani politics at the Brookings Institution,sets the tone by observing how Pakistanis lack even a shared idea of their nation. They areincreasingly divided between the urban and rural, the educated and illiterate, and bycompeting religious strands. The new normal is abnormal, he observes.

　　巴基斯坦布魯金斯研究所的備受尊崇的政治家斯蒂芬柯恩，通過觀察巴基斯坦人如何缺少意見交流，以此定下本書基調。城市和鄉村，高等學歷者和文盲之間的分化日益嚴重，宗教團體競爭日益激烈。正常之中有些反常 斯蒂芬柯恩說。

　　The country is threatened by various long-term trends. Of Pakistan s 185m people, two-thirdsare younger than 30 years old. Only the population of Yemenhardly a model ofstabilityis more youthful. One poll taken among such youngsters and cited in the booksuggests that three-quarters might emigrate if given the chance. Also many of the younghold extreme religious views, unleashed by the zealous regime of Zia ul Haq in the 1980s.

　　這個國家正收到各種長期流行趨勢的威脅。巴基斯坦的18.5億人口，2/3的人口都未滿30歲。只有也門的人口，因其流動性小，人口年輕化更嚴重。通過對年輕人的民意調查，顯示3/4的年輕人如果給予機會就會搬遷。本書也引用這次調查結果。也有很多熱衷于穆罕默德齊亞哈克政權持的年輕人被釋放，他們持有極端宗教主義觀念。

　　Rapid urbanisation brings more problems. Over a third of Pakistanis now live in towns andcities, where tribal and rural rivalries are morphing into violent, urban warlordism.Town-dwelling Pakistanis are historically more religious and conservative than ruralpopulations, writes Shuja Nawaz of the Atlantic Council. They also have smaller families, andthe youngsters are often left to fend for themselves. Thus it is in towns that both extremistsand the armed forces increasingly find recruits, which bodes ill for preserving moderateviews inside the army. Oddly, little space is given to the bloody turmoil in Karachi, perhapsthe world s most violent metropolis.

　　城市化的快速發展也帶來不少問題。超過1/3的巴基斯坦人居住在城鎮和城市中，部落和農村日益蛻變成暴力和城市的傀儡。來自大西洋理事會的舒賈納瓦茲說，居住在城鎮的人歷史性的變得比農村人更虔誠更保守。他們的家庭人員很少，最小的孩子不得不照料自己。在城鎮中極端分子和武裝力量成員日益壯大，軍隊的中立態度預示著好的征兆。奇怪的是，血腥的暴力事件頻繁發生于卡拉奇，它恐怕是世界上最殘忍的大都市。

　　The army s destructive habit of meddling in Pakistani politics continues unabated. Roughlyevery decade this switches from explicit power grabs to unsubtle efforts to manipulatecivilian leaders. For now Pakistan is in the latter phase. Though this book went to pressbefore the most recent civilian-military clash, known as Memogate, the authors may wellprove largely right in predicting lots of scheming but no new coup for some years yet.

　　軍隊并沒有改掉總是插手于巴基斯坦政治這個破壞性的惡習。似乎每個十年都發生從攫取政權到試圖操控平民領導人的轉變。現在巴基斯坦處于后者的掌控中。雖然此書在軍民沖突前已經出版，但其在預測大量陰謀方面的觀點都正確，但是幾年來沒有產生新政權的更替。

　　Within the gloom there are glimmers of hope. Most of the authors expect Pakistan to hobbleforward more or less in its current state. The lives of some will improve. Literacy rates arerising fast , families are shrinking and the press, generally, is more open than before. One sharp contributor,Aqil Shah, reckons that Pakistan will become neither Sweden nor Somalia, as the army sstrong grip will prevent disintegration but also block growth of strong civilian institutions.Even an optimist would not describe Pakistan s glass as half fullkeeping it unbroken maybe the best one could hope for.

　　在陰霾之中還有一絲希望。面臨這樣的狀況，大部分專家希望巴基斯坦人能或多或少在蹣跚中摸索前行。一些人的生活會得到改善。教育普及率迅速增加，家庭人員減少。Aqil Shah認為巴基斯坦不會步瑞士和索馬里后塵，軍隊緊握政權使其免于風崩離新的可能，但也阻遏了平民機構的強勁增長。甚至樂觀主義者也不會將巴基斯坦描繪為半滿的玻璃杯而保持這個玻璃杯的完整可能是人們最希望的。

　　Pakistan sfuture;Resilient mess;

　　巴基斯坦未來;撲朔迷離的未來;

　　The Future of Pakistan. By Stephen Cohen andothers.

　　《巴基斯坦的未來》，斯蒂芬柯恩著。

　　It seems optimistic to write a book called TheFuture of Pakistan it assumes the country hasone. Tot up the assorted threats and its survivalmay look dubious: Islamists, separatists,potentially stray nuclear weapons, the war in Afghanistan, economic and natural disasters,a booming and restless young population, unfathomably venal leaders, rotting institutionsand violent megacities. Any of these could yet spell the country s demise .

　　作者似乎以樂觀的態度寫《巴基斯坦的未來》這本書;書中倒是希望巴基斯坦的未來會讓人樂觀。綜合各種威脅，巴基斯坦的猶存似乎讓人疑慮重重：伊斯蘭教徒和獨立主義者盛行，潛在的核武器事端，阿富汗戰爭，經濟和自然災難，迅速增加的頹廢的年輕人，國家領導人卷入受賄深淵，機構腐敗，大城市暴力事件不斷。上面的任何一個事件可能招致這個國家的滅亡。

　　Individually, none of the 17 expert contributors to this frank and detailed volume is quite soapocalyptic. But their collective mood is grim. In pondering scenarios for the coming years,these various specialists have produced a flood of gloomy details and prognoses.

　　不同的是，在這本平實而詳細的書中，17位撰稿人沒有任何一位作出預言般的警告。但是這些專家都感覺前景的黯淡。當思考未來愿景時，這些來自各個行業的專家都傳達大量令人沮喪的事實和預測。

　　Stephen Cohen, a well-respected observer of Pakistani politics at the Brookings Institution,sets the tone by observing how Pakistanis lack even a shared idea of their nation. They areincreasingly divided between the urban and rural, the educated and illiterate, and bycompeting religious strands. The new normal is abnormal, he observes.

　　巴基斯坦布魯金斯研究所的備受尊崇的政治家斯蒂芬柯恩，通過觀察巴基斯坦人如何缺少意見交流，以此定下本書基調。城市和鄉村，高等學歷者和文盲之間的分化日益嚴重，宗教團體競爭日益激烈。正常之中有些反常 斯蒂芬柯恩說。

　　The country is threatened by various long-term trends. Of Pakistan s 185m people, two-thirdsare younger than 30 years old. Only the population of Yemenhardly a model ofstabilityis more youthful. One poll taken among such youngsters and cited in the booksuggests that three-quarters might emigrate if given the chance. Also many of the younghold extreme religious views, unleashed by the zealous regime of Zia ul Haq in the 1980s.

　　這個國家正收到各種長期流行趨勢的威脅。巴基斯坦的18.5億人口，2/3的人口都未滿30歲。只有也門的人口，因其流動性小，人口年輕化更嚴重。通過對年輕人的民意調查，顯示3/4的年輕人如果給予機會就會搬遷。本書也引用這次調查結果。也有很多熱衷于穆罕默德齊亞哈克政權持的年輕人被釋放，他們持有極端宗教主義觀念。

　　Rapid urbanisation brings more problems. Over a third of Pakistanis now live in towns andcities, where tribal and rural rivalries are morphing into violent, urban warlordism.Town-dwelling Pakistanis are historically more religious and conservative than ruralpopulations, writes Shuja Nawaz of the Atlantic Council. They also have smaller families, andthe youngsters are often left to fend for themselves. Thus it is in towns that both extremistsand the armed forces increasingly find recruits, which bodes ill for preserving moderateviews inside the army. Oddly, little space is given to the bloody turmoil in Karachi, perhapsthe world s most violent metropolis.

　　城市化的快速發展也帶來不少問題。超過1/3的巴基斯坦人居住在城鎮和城市中，部落和農村日益蛻變成暴力和城市的傀儡。來自大西洋理事會的舒賈納瓦茲說，居住在城鎮的人歷史性的變得比農村人更虔誠更保守。他們的家庭人員很少，最小的孩子不得不照料自己。在城鎮中極端分子和武裝力量成員日益壯大，軍隊的中立態度預示著好的征兆。奇怪的是，血腥的暴力事件頻繁發生于卡拉奇，它恐怕是世界上最殘忍的大都市。

　　The army s destructive habit of meddling in Pakistani politics continues unabated. Roughlyevery decade this switches from explicit power grabs to unsubtle efforts to manipulatecivilian leaders. For now Pakistan is in the latter phase. Though this book went to pressbefore the most recent civilian-military clash, known as Memogate, the authors may wellprove largely right in predicting lots of scheming but no new coup for some years yet.

　　軍隊并沒有改掉總是插手于巴基斯坦政治這個破壞性的惡習。似乎每個十年都發生從攫取政權到試圖操控平民領導人的轉變。現在巴基斯坦處于后者的掌控中。雖然此書在軍民沖突前已經出版，但其在預測大量陰謀方面的觀點都正確，但是幾年來沒有產生新政權的更替。

　　Within the gloom there are glimmers of hope. Most of the authors expect Pakistan to hobbleforward more or less in its current state. The lives of some will improve. Literacy rates arerising fast , families are shrinking and the press, generally, is more open than before. One sharp contributor,Aqil Shah, reckons that Pakistan will become neither Sweden nor Somalia, as the army sstrong grip will prevent disintegration but also block growth of strong civilian institutions.Even an optimist would not describe Pakistan s glass as half fullkeeping it unbroken maybe the best one could hope for.

　　在陰霾之中還有一絲希望。面臨這樣的狀況，大部分專家希望巴基斯坦人能或多或少在蹣跚中摸索前行。一些人的生活會得到改善。教育普及率迅速增加，家庭人員減少。Aqil Shah認為巴基斯坦不會步瑞士和索馬里后塵，軍隊緊握政權使其免于風崩離新的可能，但也阻遏了平民機構的強勁增長。甚至樂觀主義者也不會將巴基斯坦描繪為半滿的玻璃杯而保持這個玻璃杯的完整可能是人們最希望的。