Oil and the world economy

　　原油和世界經濟

　　The new Greece?

　　又一個希臘?

　　How to assess the risks of a 2023 oil shock

　　如何評價2023石油危機的風險

　　WITH the euro crisis in abeyance, high oil priceshave become the latest source of worry for theworld economy. Oil is the new Greece is a typicalheadline on a recent report by HSBC analysts. Thefear is understandable. Oil markets are edgy;tensions with Iran are high. The price of Brent crude shot up by more than $5 a barrel onMarch 1st, to $128, after an Iranian press report that explosions had destroyed a vital SaudiArabian oil pipeline. It fell back after the Saudis denied the claim, but at $125, crude is still16% costlier than at the start of the year.

　　歐元危機懸而未決，高油價又令世界經濟為之頭痛。在匯豐銀行分析師最近的報道中，頭條便是原油成為又一個希臘 ，這種擔憂是可以理解的。國際原油市場變幻莫測，伊朗局勢依然緊張。據一家伊朗媒體報道，一次爆炸損壞了沙特阿拉伯一條至關重要的石油管道。布倫特原油價格應聲上揚，三月一號每桶價格暴漲到128美元，漲幅超過5美元。隨后沙特當局否認了這一報道，價格出現一定回落，但依然高達125美元，原油價格較年初上漲16%。

　　Assessing the dangers posed by dearer oil means answering four questions: What is drivingup the oil price? How high could it go? What is the likely economic impact of rises so far? Andwhat damage could plausible future increases do?

　　要評估隨之而來的風險，就得回答以下四個問題：是什么在推高油價?油價會高到什么地步?到目前為止，價格上漲可能帶來的經濟影響是什么?未來似乎合理的價格增長會造成怎樣的損害?

　　The origins of higher prices matter. Supply shocks, for instance, do more damage to globalgrowth than higher prices that are the consequence of stronger demand. One frequentexplanation of the current rise is that central-bank largesse has sent oil prices higher. Inrecent months the worlds big central banks have all either injected liquidity, expandedquantitative easing or promised to keep rates low for longer.This flood of cheap money, so the argument goes, has sent investors into hard assets,especially oil. But since markets are forward-looking, the announcement rather than theenactment of QE should move oil prices; indeed, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, BenBernanke, disappointed markets last month by not signalling another round of QE . Moreover, if rising prices are being driven by speculators you should see a risein oil inventoriesexactly the opposite of what has happened.

　　其中較高價格的起源關系重大。舉例來說，供給沖擊對全球增長的危害要遠大于需求增加導致的價格上漲。一種常見的解釋是，中央銀行增加貨幣供給推動了價格上漲。最近的幾個月里，世界各大央行都向市場注入了流動性，實行量化寬松政策或者承諾現行的低利率將維持一段時間。這樣一大批廉價貨幣讓投資者涌入了硬資產領域，特別是石油，因此爭論還在繼續。但由于市場具有前瞻性，所以左右油價的應該是官方聲明而不是量化寬松政策的實施。實際上，美聯儲主席本﹒伯南克并沒有簽署另一輪量化寬松政策，這一舉動無疑挫敗了市場信心。此外，如果價格被投機者操控，那么原油存貨應該增加，而事實卻恰好相反。

　　Central banks may have affected oil indirectly, by raising global growth prospects, whichin turn buoy expectations for oil demand. Circumstantial evidence supports this thesis. Therecent rise in oil prices has coincided with greater optimism about the world economy: aeuro-zone catastrophe and a hard landing in China both appear less likely and Americasrecovery seems on stronger ground.

　　中央銀行可以通過上調全球經濟增長預期間接地影響原油價格,轉而提升原油需求的增長預期。有間接證據支撐這一論點。最近的油價上漲與對世界經濟的過分樂觀是一致的：歐元區的災難和中國的硬著陸似乎都不太可能上演，美國經濟復蘇的后勁十足。

　　But slightly rosier growth prospects are only part of the story. A more important driver ofdearer oil has been disruptions in supply. All told, the oil market has probably lost more than1m barrels a day of supply in recent months. A variety of non-Iranian troubles, from apipeline dispute with South Sudan to mechanical problems in the North Sea, haveknocked some 700,000 b/d off supply. Another 500,000 b/d or so of Iranian oil istemporarily off the market thanks both to the effects of European sanctions and a paymentdispute with China.

　　但稍微樂觀了一點的增長預期只是故事的一個部分，高油價一個更重要的推動因素是供給中斷。總而言之，在最近幾個月里，國際原油市場大概每天要減少一百萬桶的原油供給。從南蘇丹石油管道糾紛到北海機械故障，各種各樣的非伊朗問題每天就會減少70萬桶的原油供給量，另外50萬桶左右臨時的伊朗石油供給減少要歸因于歐盟制裁和與中國的支付糾紛。

　　The cushion of spare supply is thin. Oil stocks in rich countries are at a five-year low. Theextent of OPECs spare capacity is uncertain. Saudi Arabia is pumping some 10m b/d, anear-record high. And there is the threat of far bigger supply disruptions if Iran were everto carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17m barrels of oil passevery day, some 20% of global supply. Even a temporary closure would imply adisruption to dwarf any previous oil shock. The 1973 Arab oil embargo, for instance,involved less than 5m b/d.

　　備用原油的緩沖效果已經不太顯著，其中富國的原油儲備處于五年來的歷史低位。歐佩克的剩余產能大小無法確定，而沙特阿拉伯正在創造歷史新高以每天1000萬桶的速度生產原油。如果伊朗真的關閉霍爾木茲海峽這里每天有1700萬桶原油通過，大約占世界原油供給量的20%那么將會出現更大的供給中斷威脅。即使只是暫時關閉，所帶來的負面影響也將超過以前任何一次原油沖擊。例如，在1973年阿拉伯石油禁運中，每天的原油供給減少多達500萬桶。

　　Separating out these various factors is not easy, but Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs reckonsthat the fundamentals of supply and demand have pushed oil prices to around $118 a barrel.He thinks the remaining increase is down to fears about Iran. If so, should relations with Iranimprove, the oil price might go down by a few dollars, but stay close to $120.

　　分離出這些不同的因素有一定難度，但高盛公司的杰弗里?柯里估計，供給和需求的基本面已經推動油價達到每桶118美元左右，余下的增長源于對伊朗問題的擔憂。按照他的說法，如果改善與伊朗的關系，石油價格可能下行幾美元，但仍會接近120美元。

　　Globally, the damage from price increases to date is likely to be modest. A rule of thumb isthat a sustained 10% rise in the price of oil shaves around 0.2% off global growth in thefirst year, largely because dearer oil shifts income from oil consumers to producers, whotend to spend less. For now any impact is almost certainly outweighed by improvementselsewhere, particularly in the easing of the euro crisis. Despite dearer oil, the prospects forglobal growth are still better than they were at the beginning of the year.

　　在全球范圍內，價格上漲造成的傷害到目前為止可能還是適度的。有一條經驗法則是油價每持續增長10%，全球經濟增長率就會下跌0.2%，很大程度上是因為高油價將收入從石油消費者轉向生產者，所以生產者往往損失更小。現在幾乎可以肯定地說，其他方面的改善完全可以抵消任何沖擊，尤其是解決歐元危機。盡管油價高漲，全球經濟增長的前景依然好于年初。

　　But the impact on growth and inflation in individual countries will differ. In America, a netimporter which taxes fuel lightly, the standard rule is that a $10 increase in oil prices knocks around 0.2% off output in the firstyear and 0.5% in the second year. That would slow, but hardly fell, an economy that iswidely expected to grow by more than 2% this year.

　　但是對經濟增長和通脹的影響在不同的國家是有所區別的。美國作為一個石油凈進口國和燃油稅負較輕的國家，一個標準的規則是：石油價格增長10美元，會降低第一年0.2%左右的產出，第二年則會下降約0.5%。普遍預期其今年的經濟增長將超過2%，看來增長會減速，但不太可能下降。

　　There are in any case several reasons why America may be more resilient to dearer oil thanin recent years. The jump in petrol prices has been far smaller than in 2011 or 2008. Risingemployment gives consumers more income with which to pay for fuel. And Americaseconomy is becoming ever less energy-intensive, and less dependent on imports. Oilconsumption has fallen in the past two years, even as GDP has risen.

　　在任何情況下,美國都可以比近年來更有效地抵御昂貴的石油。究其原因，可以有以下幾點：汽油價格的漲幅遠小于2011年或2008年;逐步上升的就業給予消費者更多收入,從而用它來支付燃料花銷;以及美國經濟正在遠離能源密集型,更少地依賴進口。在過去的兩年里, GDP上漲的同時石油消費卻在下降。

　　Americans are driving less, and they are buying more fuel-efficient cars. Net oil imports arewell below their 2005 peak, which means more of the money Americans spend on costlier oilstays within its borders. The development of copious amounts of natural gas means gas priceshave plunged. That, coupled with an unusually mild winter, has kept bills for home heatingunusually low. In January the share of consumers spending on energy products was thesecond-lowest in 50 years. These factors do not imply that America is impervious to spikingoil, but they do suggest the impact of price rises to date will be modest.

　　美國人比以前少開車了,他們在購買油耗更低的汽車。凈進口的石油遠低于2005年的高峰時期,也就意味著美國人把更多的錢花在昂貴的石油上面并停留在美國境內。大規模發展天然氣意味著天然氣價格開始大幅下降。再加上異常溫和的冬季,家庭供暖開銷也異常之低。今年一月份,消費者的能源產品支出份額在近50年中處于第二低位。雖然這些因素并不意味著美國能夠獨善其身,但它們確實表明了價格上漲的影響是有限的。

　　Europe is more exposed. European countries, which tax oil more heavily than America, havetypically seen a smaller impact on growth from changes in the oil price. But this time theymay be relatively more affected, because most economies are already stagnant orshrinking. Worse, Europes weakest peripheral economies are also some of the biggest netimporters. Greece, for instance, is highly dependent on imported energy, of which 88% isoil. Even the price rises to date will worsen the euro-zone recession; a big jump could spawna deep downturn and fracture the confidence of markets.

　　歐洲更明顯。歐洲國家的石油稅負比美國更重,通常可以看出油價的增長變化對其造成較小的影響。但這次他們可能相對更容易受影響,因為大部分經濟體已經停滯或萎縮。更糟的是,歐洲最弱的邊緣經濟體中也有一些位于最大的石油凈進口國之列。舉例來說,希臘是個高度依賴能源進口的國家,而其中88%是石油。目前的價格上漲將進一步加劇歐元區衰退,一個大的跳躍就可能造成深刻的經濟倒退并摧毀市場信心.

　　Britain is relatively insulated. Although it is a net oil importer, it has significant resources inthe North Sea. Any losses to the consumer from dearer fuel are partially offset by gains inthe oil and gas sector itself. But even in Britain the net effect of price increases to date couldbe more damaging than usual, particularly since they reduce the odds of sharply fallinginflation. Lower inflation, and a rise in real incomes, are one reason British policymakershoped to see the economy improve this year.

　　英國相對安全。盡管英國是一個石油凈進口國,但它在北海有明顯的資源優勢，消費者在昂貴的燃料上產生的任何損失都能被石油和天然氣行業增加的收益部分抵消。即便如此，油價上漲對英國的影響也比以往更為不利, 特別是因為它們減少了通貨膨脹急劇下降的可能性。低通貨膨脹和增加的實際收入,是英國決策者所希望看到的今年經濟改善的一個方面。

　　Barrels, no laughs

　　百不一貸

　　In emerging economies the picture is even more disparate. Oil exporters, from Venezuelato the Middle East, are gaining; oil importers will see worsening trade balances. In 2008 and2011, the main effect of dearer fuel in emerging economies was on inflation. That is less ofa worry now, largely because food prices, which make up a much bigger part of mostemerging economies consumption basket, are stable.

　　新興經濟體之間的差異更大。從委內瑞拉到中東, 石油出口國都是貿易順差，而石油進口國將會面臨不斷惡化的貿易平衡。2008年和2011年,燃料價格高昂是新興經濟體通貨膨脹的主要原因。但如今不同了，占多數新型經濟體消費組合很大比重的食品價格較為穩定。

　　But some countries will face problems. In the short term, some of the hardest-hit emergingeconomies will be in eastern Europe. They will suffer not only from more expensive oil butalso from the weakening of European export markets.

　　但是有些國家將面臨一些問題。在短期內,一些受沖擊最大的新興經濟體將會出現在東歐。他們將忍受的不僅僅是愈加昂貴的石油價格，還有不斷疲軟的歐洲出口市場。

　　India is also a concern. Fuel is a big component of its wholesale-price index, for example, soinflation will rise as higher oil prices are passed through to domestic fuel costs. To theextent they are not, the budget will be hit. India regulatesand heavily subsidisestheprice of diesel and kerosene. According to Deutsche Bank, diesel prices have risen by only31% since January 2009, whereas the price of crude oil in rupees is up by 180%. Thedifference is a result of subsidies, frustrating Indias efforts to reduce its budget deficit.

　　印度也被波及。燃料是其批發價格指數一個很大的組成部分,因此，高油價將通過國內燃料成本導致通貨膨脹率上升。印度調控并大量補貼柴油和煤油價格，這一點反映在財政預算上。據德意志銀行統計,從2009年1月開始柴油價格上漲了31%,而在盧比市場原油價格已增長了180%。所不同的是補貼政策的效果挫敗印度減少預算赤字的努力。

　　So oil is not the new Greece. More expensive oil is, for now, doing little harm to globalgrowth. But it is not helping Europes more fragile economies. And if the Strait of Hormuz isthreatened, the resulting surge in oil prices will spell the end of the global recovery.

　　所以石油不是又一個神話。高企的石油價格對全球經濟增長的危害會少一些，但這并不能緩解歐洲愈加脆弱的經濟。如果霍爾木茲海峽的正常運營受到威脅,油價上漲將會宣告全球復蘇的結束。

　　Oil and the world economy

　　原油和世界經濟

　　The new Greece?

　　又一個希臘?

　　How to assess the risks of a 2023 oil shock

　　如何評價2023石油危機的風險

　　WITH the euro crisis in abeyance, high oil priceshave become the latest source of worry for theworld economy. Oil is the new Greece is a typicalheadline on a recent report by HSBC analysts. Thefear is understandable. Oil markets are edgy;tensions with Iran are high. The price of Brent crude shot up by more than $5 a barrel onMarch 1st, to $128, after an Iranian press report that explosions had destroyed a vital SaudiArabian oil pipeline. It fell back after the Saudis denied the claim, but at $125, crude is still16% costlier than at the start of the year.

　　歐元危機懸而未決，高油價又令世界經濟為之頭痛。在匯豐銀行分析師最近的報道中，頭條便是原油成為又一個希臘 ，這種擔憂是可以理解的。國際原油市場變幻莫測，伊朗局勢依然緊張。據一家伊朗媒體報道，一次爆炸損壞了沙特阿拉伯一條至關重要的石油管道。布倫特原油價格應聲上揚，三月一號每桶價格暴漲到128美元，漲幅超過5美元。隨后沙特當局否認了這一報道，價格出現一定回落，但依然高達125美元，原油價格較年初上漲16%。

　　Assessing the dangers posed by dearer oil means answering four questions: What is drivingup the oil price? How high could it go? What is the likely economic impact of rises so far? Andwhat damage could plausible future increases do?

　　要評估隨之而來的風險，就得回答以下四個問題：是什么在推高油價?油價會高到什么地步?到目前為止，價格上漲可能帶來的經濟影響是什么?未來似乎合理的價格增長會造成怎樣的損害?

　　The origins of higher prices matter. Supply shocks, for instance, do more damage to globalgrowth than higher prices that are the consequence of stronger demand. One frequentexplanation of the current rise is that central-bank largesse has sent oil prices higher. Inrecent months the worlds big central banks have all either injected liquidity, expandedquantitative easing or promised to keep rates low for longer.This flood of cheap money, so the argument goes, has sent investors into hard assets,especially oil. But since markets are forward-looking, the announcement rather than theenactment of QE should move oil prices; indeed, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, BenBernanke, disappointed markets last month by not signalling another round of QE . Moreover, if rising prices are being driven by speculators you should see a risein oil inventoriesexactly the opposite of what has happened.

　　其中較高價格的起源關系重大。舉例來說，供給沖擊對全球增長的危害要遠大于需求增加導致的價格上漲。一種常見的解釋是，中央銀行增加貨幣供給推動了價格上漲。最近的幾個月里，世界各大央行都向市場注入了流動性，實行量化寬松政策或者承諾現行的低利率將維持一段時間。這樣一大批廉價貨幣讓投資者涌入了硬資產領域，特別是石油，因此爭論還在繼續。但由于市場具有前瞻性，所以左右油價的應該是官方聲明而不是量化寬松政策的實施。實際上，美聯儲主席本﹒伯南克并沒有簽署另一輪量化寬松政策，這一舉動無疑挫敗了市場信心。此外，如果價格被投機者操控，那么原油存貨應該增加，而事實卻恰好相反。

　　Central banks may have affected oil indirectly, by raising global growth prospects, whichin turn buoy expectations for oil demand. Circumstantial evidence supports this thesis. Therecent rise in oil prices has coincided with greater optimism about the world economy: aeuro-zone catastrophe and a hard landing in China both appear less likely and Americasrecovery seems on stronger ground.

　　中央銀行可以通過上調全球經濟增長預期間接地影響原油價格,轉而提升原油需求的增長預期。有間接證據支撐這一論點。最近的油價上漲與對世界經濟的過分樂觀是一致的：歐元區的災難和中國的硬著陸似乎都不太可能上演，美國經濟復蘇的后勁十足。

　　But slightly rosier growth prospects are only part of the story. A more important driver ofdearer oil has been disruptions in supply. All told, the oil market has probably lost more than1m barrels a day of supply in recent months. A variety of non-Iranian troubles, from apipeline dispute with South Sudan to mechanical problems in the North Sea, haveknocked some 700,000 b/d off supply. Another 500,000 b/d or so of Iranian oil istemporarily off the market thanks both to the effects of European sanctions and a paymentdispute with China.

　　但稍微樂觀了一點的增長預期只是故事的一個部分，高油價一個更重要的推動因素是供給中斷。總而言之，在最近幾個月里，國際原油市場大概每天要減少一百萬桶的原油供給。從南蘇丹石油管道糾紛到北海機械故障，各種各樣的非伊朗問題每天就會減少70萬桶的原油供給量，另外50萬桶左右臨時的伊朗石油供給減少要歸因于歐盟制裁和與中國的支付糾紛。

　　The cushion of spare supply is thin. Oil stocks in rich countries are at a five-year low. Theextent of OPECs spare capacity is uncertain. Saudi Arabia is pumping some 10m b/d, anear-record high. And there is the threat of far bigger supply disruptions if Iran were everto carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17m barrels of oil passevery day, some 20% of global supply. Even a temporary closure would imply adisruption to dwarf any previous oil shock. The 1973 Arab oil embargo, for instance,involved less than 5m b/d.

　　備用原油的緩沖效果已經不太顯著，其中富國的原油儲備處于五年來的歷史低位。歐佩克的剩余產能大小無法確定，而沙特阿拉伯正在創造歷史新高以每天1000萬桶的速度生產原油。如果伊朗真的關閉霍爾木茲海峽這里每天有1700萬桶原油通過，大約占世界原油供給量的20%那么將會出現更大的供給中斷威脅。即使只是暫時關閉，所帶來的負面影響也將超過以前任何一次原油沖擊。例如，在1973年阿拉伯石油禁運中，每天的原油供給減少多達500萬桶。

　　Separating out these various factors is not easy, but Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs reckonsthat the fundamentals of supply and demand have pushed oil prices to around $118 a barrel.He thinks the remaining increase is down to fears about Iran. If so, should relations with Iranimprove, the oil price might go down by a few dollars, but stay close to $120.

　　分離出這些不同的因素有一定難度，但高盛公司的杰弗里?柯里估計，供給和需求的基本面已經推動油價達到每桶118美元左右，余下的增長源于對伊朗問題的擔憂。按照他的說法，如果改善與伊朗的關系，石油價格可能下行幾美元，但仍會接近120美元。

　　Globally, the damage from price increases to date is likely to be modest. A rule of thumb isthat a sustained 10% rise in the price of oil shaves around 0.2% off global growth in thefirst year, largely because dearer oil shifts income from oil consumers to producers, whotend to spend less. For now any impact is almost certainly outweighed by improvementselsewhere, particularly in the easing of the euro crisis. Despite dearer oil, the prospects forglobal growth are still better than they were at the beginning of the year.

　　在全球范圍內，價格上漲造成的傷害到目前為止可能還是適度的。有一條經驗法則是油價每持續增長10%，全球經濟增長率就會下跌0.2%，很大程度上是因為高油價將收入從石油消費者轉向生產者，所以生產者往往損失更小。現在幾乎可以肯定地說，其他方面的改善完全可以抵消任何沖擊，尤其是解決歐元危機。盡管油價高漲，全球經濟增長的前景依然好于年初。

　　But the impact on growth and inflation in individual countries will differ. In America, a netimporter which taxes fuel lightly, the standard rule is that a $10 increase in oil prices knocks around 0.2% off output in the firstyear and 0.5% in the second year. That would slow, but hardly fell, an economy that iswidely expected to grow by more than 2% this year.

　　但是對經濟增長和通脹的影響在不同的國家是有所區別的。美國作為一個石油凈進口國和燃油稅負較輕的國家，一個標準的規則是：石油價格增長10美元，會降低第一年0.2%左右的產出，第二年則會下降約0.5%。普遍預期其今年的經濟增長將超過2%，看來增長會減速，但不太可能下降。

　　There are in any case several reasons why America may be more resilient to dearer oil thanin recent years. The jump in petrol prices has been far smaller than in 2011 or 2008. Risingemployment gives consumers more income with which to pay for fuel. And Americaseconomy is becoming ever less energy-intensive, and less dependent on imports. Oilconsumption has fallen in the past two years, even as GDP has risen.

　　在任何情況下,美國都可以比近年來更有效地抵御昂貴的石油。究其原因，可以有以下幾點：汽油價格的漲幅遠小于2011年或2008年;逐步上升的就業給予消費者更多收入,從而用它來支付燃料花銷;以及美國經濟正在遠離能源密集型,更少地依賴進口。在過去的兩年里, GDP上漲的同時石油消費卻在下降。

　　Americans are driving less, and they are buying more fuel-efficient cars. Net oil imports arewell below their 2005 peak, which means more of the money Americans spend on costlier oilstays within its borders. The development of copious amounts of natural gas means gas priceshave plunged. That, coupled with an unusually mild winter, has kept bills for home heatingunusually low. In January the share of consumers spending on energy products was thesecond-lowest in 50 years. These factors do not imply that America is impervious to spikingoil, but they do suggest the impact of price rises to date will be modest.

　　美國人比以前少開車了,他們在購買油耗更低的汽車。凈進口的石油遠低于2005年的高峰時期,也就意味著美國人把更多的錢花在昂貴的石油上面并停留在美國境內。大規模發展天然氣意味著天然氣價格開始大幅下降。再加上異常溫和的冬季,家庭供暖開銷也異常之低。今年一月份,消費者的能源產品支出份額在近50年中處于第二低位。雖然這些因素并不意味著美國能夠獨善其身,但它們確實表明了價格上漲的影響是有限的。

　　Europe is more exposed. European countries, which tax oil more heavily than America, havetypically seen a smaller impact on growth from changes in the oil price. But this time theymay be relatively more affected, because most economies are already stagnant orshrinking. Worse, Europes weakest peripheral economies are also some of the biggest netimporters. Greece, for instance, is highly dependent on imported energy, of which 88% isoil. Even the price rises to date will worsen the euro-zone recession; a big jump could spawna deep downturn and fracture the confidence of markets.

　　歐洲更明顯。歐洲國家的石油稅負比美國更重,通常可以看出油價的增長變化對其造成較小的影響。但這次他們可能相對更容易受影響,因為大部分經濟體已經停滯或萎縮。更糟的是,歐洲最弱的邊緣經濟體中也有一些位于最大的石油凈進口國之列。舉例來說,希臘是個高度依賴能源進口的國家,而其中88%是石油。目前的價格上漲將進一步加劇歐元區衰退,一個大的跳躍就可能造成深刻的經濟倒退并摧毀市場信心.

　　Britain is relatively insulated. Although it is a net oil importer, it has significant resources inthe North Sea. Any losses to the consumer from dearer fuel are partially offset by gains inthe oil and gas sector itself. But even in Britain the net effect of price increases to date couldbe more damaging than usual, particularly since they reduce the odds of sharply fallinginflation. Lower inflation, and a rise in real incomes, are one reason British policymakershoped to see the economy improve this year.

　　英國相對安全。盡管英國是一個石油凈進口國,但它在北海有明顯的資源優勢，消費者在昂貴的燃料上產生的任何損失都能被石油和天然氣行業增加的收益部分抵消。即便如此，油價上漲對英國的影響也比以往更為不利, 特別是因為它們減少了通貨膨脹急劇下降的可能性。低通貨膨脹和增加的實際收入,是英國決策者所希望看到的今年經濟改善的一個方面。

　　Barrels, no laughs

　　百不一貸

　　In emerging economies the picture is even more disparate. Oil exporters, from Venezuelato the Middle East, are gaining; oil importers will see worsening trade balances. In 2008 and2011, the main effect of dearer fuel in emerging economies was on inflation. That is less ofa worry now, largely because food prices, which make up a much bigger part of mostemerging economies consumption basket, are stable.

　　新興經濟體之間的差異更大。從委內瑞拉到中東, 石油出口國都是貿易順差，而石油進口國將會面臨不斷惡化的貿易平衡。2008年和2011年,燃料價格高昂是新興經濟體通貨膨脹的主要原因。但如今不同了，占多數新型經濟體消費組合很大比重的食品價格較為穩定。

　　But some countries will face problems. In the short term, some of the hardest-hit emergingeconomies will be in eastern Europe. They will suffer not only from more expensive oil butalso from the weakening of European export markets.

　　但是有些國家將面臨一些問題。在短期內,一些受沖擊最大的新興經濟體將會出現在東歐。他們將忍受的不僅僅是愈加昂貴的石油價格，還有不斷疲軟的歐洲出口市場。

　　India is also a concern. Fuel is a big component of its wholesale-price index, for example, soinflation will rise as higher oil prices are passed through to domestic fuel costs. To theextent they are not, the budget will be hit. India regulatesand heavily subsidisestheprice of diesel and kerosene. According to Deutsche Bank, diesel prices have risen by only31% since January 2009, whereas the price of crude oil in rupees is up by 180%. Thedifference is a result of subsidies, frustrating Indias efforts to reduce its budget deficit.

　　印度也被波及。燃料是其批發價格指數一個很大的組成部分,因此，高油價將通過國內燃料成本導致通貨膨脹率上升。印度調控并大量補貼柴油和煤油價格，這一點反映在財政預算上。據德意志銀行統計,從2009年1月開始柴油價格上漲了31%,而在盧比市場原油價格已增長了180%。所不同的是補貼政策的效果挫敗印度減少預算赤字的努力。

　　So oil is not the new Greece. More expensive oil is, for now, doing little harm to globalgrowth. But it is not helping Europes more fragile economies. And if the Strait of Hormuz isthreatened, the resulting surge in oil prices will spell the end of the global recovery.

　　所以石油不是又一個神話。高企的石油價格對全球經濟增長的危害會少一些，但這并不能緩解歐洲愈加脆弱的經濟。如果霍爾木茲海峽的正常運營受到威脅,油價上漲將會宣告全球復蘇的結束。